C波段雷达反射率资料的同化与数值模拟
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国家科技支撑计划重点项目(2008BAC37B01、2008BAC37B05)、天津市气象局项目“C波段雷达资料在中尺度模式中的应用研究”(201103)资助


Assimilation of C Band Doppler Radar Reflectivity Data and Application in Numerical Simulation
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    摘要:

    利用ARPS模式(Advanced Regional Prediction System)的资料分析系统ADAS(ARPS Data Analysis System),以NCEP GFS资料为背景场对我国西北地区CINRAD CB\\CC型雷达反射率资料进行同化试验研究,并借助于WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)模式,对发生在黄河河套及河北地区的一次天气过程进行个例模拟试验。不同模拟方案模拟结果的对比分析和短时预报检验表明:①C波段雷达反射率资料的引入与S波段雷达反射率资料在空间覆盖上构成互补,与卫星、地面等资料的云综合分析能够分析出与实况更为接近的降水场和垂直结构信息;②同化了C波段雷达反射率资料的试验方案在模拟回波系统演变上优于未同化的,但由于模拟低层暖湿条件不足,系统逐渐衰弱与实况不符;③对比实况降水发现,区域C波段雷达反射率资料的同化对短时降水预报效果有一定改善。

    Abstract:

    By using ADAS (ARPS Data Analysis System) and NCEP GFS data as the background field, an assimilation experiment is conducted on CB\\CC Doppler radar reflectivity in Northwest China, and by means of WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model), a weather process occurred around the Hetao region of Yellow River and Hebei Province is simulated. The contrast between the experiment results using different simulation schemes and the forecasting verification show that: (1) the introducing of the C Band radar reflectivity data is complementary in space with the S Band radar data, and the rainfall field and vertical structure information given by the complex cloud analysis scheme with satellite and surface observation data are closer to reality. (2) The scheme with C Band radar reflectivity assimilated is superior to the unassimilated for the simulation of the reflectivity echoes, but the simulated system is gradually ebbed because of the inadequate water supply, which is different from reality. (3) The contrast between different assimilation schemes with the real precipitation indicates that the assimilated reflectivities improved the short time precipitation forecast.

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李平,解以扬,李英华,官莉,温焰军. C波段雷达反射率资料的同化与数值模拟[J].气象科技,2013,41(3):506~515

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2012-02-08
  • 定稿日期:2012-08-06
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  • 在线发布日期: 2013-06-24
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