Lorenz96模式中三种目标观测方法的有效性比较
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国家自然科学基金项目(41331174、41430426)资助


Comparison of Three Targeting Observations Methods in Lorenz96
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    摘要:

    目标观测是有效提升观测效能和观测质量的一种观测策略,其核心部分是敏感区的识别。本文在Lorenz96〖JP〗模式上比较了奇异向量法(SVs)、集合变换卡尔曼滤波法(ETKF)和条件非线性最优扰动法(CNOP)识别敏感区的优劣,并尝试揭示ETKF方法性能不稳定的原因与机制。试验结果表明:在312 h内的不同预报时刻,CNOP方法识别的敏感区范围较小且对预报效果的提升率最高;SVs方法识别的敏感区对72 h内的预报有较好的改进,但72 h后改进程度急剧下降,到120 h后基本失效;ETKF方法识别的敏感区在72 h内不如其他方法的效果好。此外,在ETKF方法识别的敏感区与随机选取的敏感区对比中发现,由于ETKF方法操作时采用顺序观测资料处理方案搜寻敏感区,本质上忽略了观测资料间的相关性,导致ETKF方法识别出的敏感区并不一定是全局信号方差最大的区域,对预报效果的改善有限,这也说明了如何优化敏感区搜寻方案是提高ETKF方法效能的关键。

    Abstract:

    Targeting observation is an observation strategy which can efficiently and effectively improve the quality of observations. Identification of sensitive regions is a key point in targeting observations. Three typical methods including Singular Vectors (SVs), Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF), and the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation (CNOP) are applied in the Lorenz96 model in this paper. Their advantages and disadvantages are discussed, and the reason why the ETKF method’s efficiency is unstable is discussed. The results show: For forecast time within 312 hours, the CNOP method’s forecast accuracy promotions are the highest among three methods, and its sensitive regions are small. While the SVs method has good results in the 72hour forecast, but sharply descends after that, and generally invalid after 120 hours. The ETKF method is not as good as other methods in the 72 hour forecast; moreover, though the comparison to the randomly selected sensitive regions, due to the serial observation processing is used, which ignores the relation with observation data, the ETKF method cannot successfully find the sensitive regions, which has the maximum covariance of signals and so its promotions to forecast accuracy is limited. It indicates how to search sensitive regions optimally is the key to promote the efficiency of the ETKF method.

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严珺,郑琴,周仕政,王璞. Lorenz96模式中三种目标观测方法的有效性比较[J].气象科技,2017,45(5):829~835

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  • 收稿日期:2016-10-25
  • 最后修改日期:2017-06-15
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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-10-31
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