ROAD模式渤海10 m风场预报误差订正
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环渤海区域科技协同创新基金项目(QYXM201712)“黄渤海区域风、浪智能网格预报协同技术研究”资助


ErrorCorrection of 10 m Wind Forecast in ROAD Model over Bohai Sea
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    摘要:

    使用“递减平均法”和渤海28个石油、平台、浮标站资料分析得到的渤海10 m风速逐时格点场,对ROAD模式(Regional Ocean and Atmosphere Model)渤海区域10 m风速预报进行误差订正,不同权重系数试验表明:对于渤海10 m风速预报场,权重系数取0.18,订正效果最佳,12~72 h预报时效内,月逐时均方根误差和平均偏差均有明显改善,分别减小1.0~1.5 m/s和2.3~3.0 m/s;对比渤海北部、西部和中部代表格点72 h预报时效内,逐12 h最大风速评分结果发现:60 h预报时效内,当风速预报在5~6级时,渤海北部、中部和西部订正后的预报评分大多有所提高;当风速预报在7级时,渤海北部和中部分别在36~72 h和24~48 h,预报评分有提高;在实况出现最多的风力分布范围内评分提高最多。

    Abstract:

    The decreasing average method and the 10m wind speed gridpoint field analyzed from 28 oil platforms and buoy stations over the Bohai Sea are used to correct the error of the 10 m wind speed forecast in the Bohai area of ROAD model (Regional Ocean and Atmosphere Model). Tests of different weight coefficients indicate: for the forecast field of Bohai 10 mwind speed, the correction is most effective when the weight coefficient is about 0.18.When the lead time is 12 to 72 hours, the monthly hourtohour root mean square error and mean deviation are improved significantly, decreased to 1.0 to 1.5 m/s and 2.3 to 3.0 m/s, respectively. Comparing the representative points of the northern, western and central parts of the Bohai Sea in the lead time of 72 hours, the maximum wind speed scores of every 12 hours turn out: in the lead time of 60 hours, when wind speed forecast is 5 to 6 m/s, most of the forecast scores in the northern, central and western parts of the Bohai Sea are improved. When wind speed forecast is 7 m/s, the maximum wind speed forecast score of the past 12 hours is improved, being 36 to 72 hours and 24 to 48 hour in northern and central parts of the Bohai Sea. The scores are improved most obviously in the range of the wind force distribution with the highest concurrency frequency.

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王亚男,苏杭,胡田田,郭玉娣,林毅. ROAD模式渤海10 m风场预报误差订正[J].气象科技,2019,47(6):934~940

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2018-10-12
  • 定稿日期:2019-07-30
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  • 在线发布日期: 2019-12-16
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