杭州市典型雨转雪天气成因及预报模型
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“杭州市0~15天中短期精细化天气预报产品开发”项目(ZJZBC189004)、杭州市气象局科技计划项目(QX201816)资助


Causes and Forecast Model of Typical Rain-to-Snow Weather in Hangzhou
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    摘要:

    利用2008—2018年的NCEP(1°×1°)再分析资料、常规气象观测资料和降雪加密观测资料,选出杭州地区10次典型的雨转雪天气过程,从大尺度环流背景和动力、水汽以及热力因子等物理量场结构方面展开研究,最终得出杭州冬季典型雨转雪天气的预报模型:①大尺度环流配置需满足能为雨转雪天气的形成提供有利的水汽、动力抬升以及中低层上暖下冷的逆温或等温层结条件;②水汽和动力因子等物理量须满足产生纯雪的特定条件;③杭州温度层结须为T2m≤1.5 ℃、T925≤-4.0 ℃、T850≤0 ℃、T700≤-1.0 ℃和T500≤-10.0 ℃。此外,进一步补充了杭州可能产生大雪甚至暴雪量级降雪的特定条件。最终选取2019年初的2次典型降水过程进行预报回报检验。

    Abstract:

    Based on the NCEP (National Center of Environmental Prediction) reanalysis data with a resolution of 1°×1°, conventional meteorological data and intensive snowfall observations from 2008 to 2018, ten typical weather processes of rainsnow conversion in Hangzhou are selected in the aspects of largescale circulation background and physical quantities such as dynamic, water vapor and thermal factors. Ultimately, the typical winter forecast hints of rainsnow conversion in Hangzhou are concluded as follows: (1) The largescale circulation configuration provides favorable conditions including water vapor, dynamic lifting and inversion or isothermal stratification in the middle and lower troposphere for the formation of rain to snow. 〖JP2〗(2) The physical quantities such as water vapor 〖JP3〗and dynamic factors should satisfy specific conditions for snow. (3) The temperature stratification in Hangzhou should be 〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗2m≤1.5 ℃,〖JP〗 〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗925≤4.0 ℃, 〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗850≤0 ℃, 〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗700≤-1.0 ℃ and 〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗500≤-10.0 ℃. In addition, the possible conditions for heavy snow or even blizzards in Hangzhou are further discussed. Moreover, two typical precipitation processes at the beginning of 2019 are selected for forecast inspection.

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李进,陈勇明,毛则剑.杭州市典型雨转雪天气成因及预报模型[J].气象科技,2020,48(3):396~405

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2019-06-18
  • 定稿日期:2019-09-04
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-06-18
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