浙江省高速公路路面温度预报模型性能检验及应用
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华东区域气象科技协同创新基金合作项目(QYHZ201805)和浙江省气象局科技计划项目(2019ZD11)共同资助


A Numerical Forecasting System for Road Surface Temperature on Expressway in Zhejiang Province and its Performance Evaluation
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    摘要:

    基于地表能量守恒方程和陆面模式土壤温度计算模块,建立高速公路路面温度预报物理模型。利用2014年6月1日至2015年5月31日8个常规气象观测站和6个交通自动气象监测站逐小时观测资料对模型预报产品进行评估检验,结果表明:预报效果随提前量的减小而提高,常规站(交通站)提前1 h和6 h预报的平均绝对误差分别为1.64 ℃(1.82 ℃)和3.27 ℃和(3.69 ℃)。由模型对输入气象要素的敏感性分析得出:模型对2 m气温最敏感,其次是相对湿度、总云量,且敏感性随着预报提前量的增加而增强。结合浙江省快速更新同化系统数值预报产品,建立浙江省高速公路路面温度预报系统,为全省提供逐12 h更新、12 h预报时效的逐小时高速公路路面温度精细化预报,系统提前1 h和11 h预报常规站(交通站)的平均绝对误差分别为2.81 ℃(3.23 ℃)和2.50 ℃和(2.93 ℃),系统对极端高(低)温预报具有较高的预报技巧。

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    Based on the surface energy balance method and the soil temperature calculation module of the Community Land Model (CLM), a numerical forecast model for road surface temperature on expressway is developed. The hourly observation data of 8 conventional meteorological stations and 6 traffic automatic weather monitoring stations from 1 June 2014 to 31 May 2015 are used to evaluate and test the model forecast products. The results show that the prediction skill increases with the decrease of forecast lead time. When the forecast lead time is 1 and 6 hours, the average absolute errors of the conventional stations (traffic stations) are 1.64 ℃ (1.82 ℃) and 3.27 ℃ (3.69 ℃), respectively. The sensitivity analysis of the model to the meteorological elements indicates that the model is most sensitive to 2m temperature, followed by relative humidity and total cloud amount, and the sensitivity increases with the increase of forecast lead time. Combined with the forecasting products of the Zhejiang WRFADAS Rapid Refresh System, the Zhejiang Expressway Surface Temperature Forecasting System is established to provide the refined forecasting products of hourly highway surface temperature in the future 12 hours with an update rate of 12 hours for the whole province. The evaluation results show that the average absolute errors of conventional stations (traffic stations) are 2.81 ℃ (3.23 ℃) and 2.50 ℃ (2.93 ℃), respectively, when the forecast lead time are 1 and 11 hours. The system has high forecasting skills for extreme high (low) temperature forecasting.

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邱金晶,陈锋,张珏,倪思聪.浙江省高速公路路面温度预报模型性能检验及应用[J].气象科技,2020,48(4):518~528

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2019-08-22
  • 定稿日期:2020-05-06
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-08-21
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