基于降雨强度与历时的红层区滑坡降雨阈值分析——以普洱为例
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云南省普洱市气象局李崇银院士工作站(2018IC150)和贵州省科技厅项目[黔科合支撑2017(2593)]共同资助


Rainfall Threshold Analysis of Landslides in Red Bed Areas Based on Rainfall Intensity and Duration: Pu’er as an Example
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    摘要:

    普洱位于云南西南部,境内岩浆岩分布广泛。地质构造不仅复杂,也是典型的红层易滑区。本文利用普洱市2009—2014年降水量和滑坡资料,采用Caine阈值曲线和聚类分析方法,分析了红层区降雨型滑坡特征及确定降雨型滑坡的降雨阈值曲线,以期为红层区降雨型滑坡的预报预警提供理论依据。通过统计分析得出:①研究区域滑坡灾害主要集中在哀牢山群、无量山群及澜沧群,并属相应断裂带上。② 7—9月滑坡灾害发生最为频繁,占发生总量的77.1%。③滑坡灾害可分为短历时强降水型,中等历时弱降水型和长历时弱降水型、非降雨型滑坡,通过统计分析得出全市有40个滑坡事件与降雨无明显相关关系(0.7%)。④使用改进后的Caine模型研究了区域滑坡降雨阈值曲线,得到4类曲线:I=85D-0.874、I=45D-0.811、I=27D-0.782、I=12D-0.774。其最低阈值高于Guzzetti全球阈值,但较Caine全球阈值略低,最高阈值较福建台风型降雨滑坡阈值高。

    Abstract:

    Pu’er is located in the southwest of Yunnan Province. Magma rocks are widely distributed. The geological structure of this area is not only complex, but also a typical red bed landslideprone area. The characteristics and the rainfall threshold curve of raininduced landslide disasters can be obtained by using the Caine threshold curve, rainfall intensity and duration, clustering analysis and other methods, by means of the data of rainfall and landslids from 2009 to 2014 over Pu’er, so as to provide a theoretical basis for the prediction and warning of rainfallinduced landslides in the red bed areas. The statistical analysis indicates: (1) The landslide hazards in the study area mainly focus on the Ailaoshan Mountain group, Wuliang Mountain group and Lancang Mountain group, and belong to the corresponding fault zones. (2) Landslide hazards account for 77.1% of the total, occurred most frequently from July to September. (3) Landslide hazards can be divided into the shortterm heavy rainfall type, midterm weak rainfall type and longterm weak rainfall type. The statistical analysis shows that there are 40 landslides without significant correlation with rainfall (0.7%). (4) Using the improved Caine model, it can be obtained that the rainfall threshold curves of landslides can be divided into four categories in the study area: I=85D-0.874, I=45D-0.811, I=27D-0.782, and I=12D-0.774. The minimum threshold is higher than the global threshold of Guzzetti, but lower than that of Caine, and the maximum threshold is higher than the threshold of landslides induced by typhoon rainfall in Fujian.

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王秀英,王朝明,廖留峰,陈卓,田奇灵,陈莹.基于降雨强度与历时的红层区滑坡降雨阈值分析——以普洱为例[J].气象科技,2020,48(5):758~765

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  • 收稿日期:2019-07-21
  • 定稿日期:2020-05-18
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-10-26
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