安徽省油菜越冬期低温冻害时空分布特征及风险评估
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国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFD0300905)、科技助力经济2020重点专项(KJZLJJ202002)资助


Time and Space Distribution Characteristics and Risk Assessment of Rape Low-Temperature Freezing Damage in Anhui Province
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    摘要:

    低温冻害特征及其风险评估可为油菜种植布局等决策提供理论依据。利用1960—2017年安徽省66个国家地面气象观测站逐日气象数据,以油菜越冬期低温强度将冻害等级划分为轻、中、重3级冻害并构建低温风险指数。采用ArcGIS 9.3工具、及Morlet小波分析法等分析近57 a安徽省油菜越冬期低温冻害的多时间尺度变化特征,并进行越冬期低温冻害风险区划。结果表明:①安徽省油菜越冬期不同等级低温冻害空间分布特征基本相似,呈现由南到北的带状分布特征,年平均发生总冻害的高值区多集中在淮北地区、沿淮地区和大别山区。②近57 a来油菜越冬期轻度、中度、重度及总冻害分别以1.0 d/10a、1.0 d/10a、1.1 d/10a和3.2 d/10a的倾向率呈现明显的下降趋势,表明全球气候变暖在一定程度上有利于油菜安全越冬。③轻度风险区位于霍山—六安—合肥—全椒以南地区,该区纬度较低,油菜越冬期低温冻害风险指数较小,适宜大面积种植油菜。研究结论可作为安徽省油菜种植布局和气象灾害防御对策制定的依据。

    Abstract:

    Lowtemperature frozen characteristics and their risk assessment can provide the theoretical basis for decision-making of rape planting layout. This article uses daily weather data from 66 national ground meteorological stations in Anhui Province from 1960 to 2017. Depending on the low-temperature strength, the lowtemperature freezing damage is divided into three levels: light, medium and heavy damage, and builds a low-temperature risk index. Matlab, ArcGIS 9.3 and wavelet analysis methods have been applied to analyze the multitime scale variation characteristics of rape low-temperature freezing damage in Anhui Province for nearly 57 years. Low-temperature freezing risk zoning of rape is carried out. The results show that: (1) The distribution characteristics of different levels of low-temperature freezing damage are basically similar during the wintering of rape in Anhui Province, rendering strip distribution characteristics from south to north. High-value areas for average annual total freezing damage occur in the Huaibei area, along the Huaihe area and the Dabie mountain area. (2) Mild, moderate, severe, and total freezing damages show a significant decline; the tendency rates are 1.0, 1.0, 1.1 and 3.2 days per 10 years, respectively, during the wintering of rape in nearly 57 years, which indicates that global warming is good for rape safety in a certain extent. (3) The light-weight risk area is located in the southern region of the Huoshan-Liu’an-Hefei-Quanjiao area, which has a lower latitude, and smaller low-temperature freezing risk index, and is suitable for large-scale planting. The study conclusions can be used as a basis for the development of rape planting layout and meteorological disaster defence countermeasures.

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谢金花,黄琴琴,尚秉琛.安徽省油菜越冬期低温冻害时空分布特征及风险评估[J].气象科技,2023,51(2):287~294

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  • 收稿日期:2022-04-11
  • 定稿日期:2023-02-02
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-04-27
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