石家庄樱桃低温冻害天气指数保险纯费率的厘定
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河北省石家庄市气象局科研项目(KY2012)“石家庄地区樱桃低温冻害天气指数保险产品初探”资助


Estimate of Net Premium Rate of Cherry Low-Temperature Freezing Disaster Weather Index Insurance in Shijiazhuang
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    摘要:

    利用典型樱桃园区2018—2020年物候观测数据及相近区域气象观测站气温数据、2006—2020年国家自动气象观测站气温数据,确定了低温冻害研究时段,并按照积温(Growing Degree Days,GDD)模型划分了樱桃生育期气象指标,参照QX/T 88—2008作物霜冻害等级中樱桃不同生育期低温冻害指标,构建了以日最低气温、日平均气温、持续时间构成的低温冻害指数模型,进而建立了低温冻害指数与减产率线性回归模型;通过对比分析泊松分布、信息扩散方法、正态分布、韦伯分布4种概率分布模型在樱桃低温冻害指数分布中的适用检验,选取通过卡方拟合优度检验且差值标准差最小的信息扩散方法模型,厘定了石家庄露天樱桃低温冻害天气指数在不同触发条件下的保险纯费率,最高为2.045%,最低为0.173%。研究表明:在数据量较小的情况下,信息扩散方法模型的分布形态更加符合真实的概率分布形态,为尚未开展长序列观测的农作物天气指数保险产品的设计提供了理论思考。

    Abstract:

    The data used in this study includes cherry phenological observation data and temperature observation data in the cherry planting area for 2018-2020 and the temperature data of the national automatic meteorological observation station in 2006-2020 in Shijiazhuang. The research period is determined by adopting mathematical statistical methods, and the meteorological indicators of cherry fertility are delineated according to the GDD(Growing Degree Days) model. Subsequently, by referring to the “Crop Frost Damage Grade”, the daily minimum temperature, the daily average temperature and duration are selected as the elements of the lowtemperature freezing injury index in this paper. The linear regression model between lowtemperature freezing injury index and yield reduction rate is established. Compared to the four probability distribution models, including poisson distribution, information diffusion method, normal distribution and Weber distribution, the results show that the information diffusion method passes the chisquare goodness of fit test, and its RMSE value of the model is the minimum. Therefore, the information diffusion method is the most suitable lowtemperature freezing injury index distribution model. The study finally determines the weather index insurance net premium rate under different trigger conditions of lowtemperature freezing injury in Shijiazhuang. The maximum rate is 2.045%, and the minimum is 0.173%. At the same time, this study finds that in the case of a small amount of data, the distribution pattern of the information diffusion method model is more consistent with the real probability distribution pattern. And this model provides a theoretical model for the crop weather index insurance products, for which longseries observations have yet to be conducted.

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刘思廷,杨晔,高祺,曹春莉.石家庄樱桃低温冻害天气指数保险纯费率的厘定[J].气象科技,2023,51(2):302~308

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  • 收稿日期:2022-03-23
  • 定稿日期:2023-02-21
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-04-27
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