2010—2019年中国闪电活动及其环境表征物理量分析研究
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国家自然科学基金联合基金(U2142202、U2342204)、国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3004104)、中国气象局重点创新团队(CMA2022ZD07)共同资助


A Study on Lightning Activities and Environmental Physical Characteristics in China from 2010 to 2019
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    摘要:

    本文利用2010—2019年中国ADTD(Advanced TOA and Direction system)型闪电定位仪闪电监测数据和NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction)再分析资料,在分析闪电活动特征的基础上,结合TS评分、预报偏差等天气学检验指标,研究中国及不同区域闪电的环境条件物理量特征。闪电活动特征显示,闪电分布呈“南多北少”的形势,华南闪电密度最大,其次为江南东部和西南地区东部;在频数年变化上,除6月为华南闪电高发月外,全国及大部分地区8月闪电最多;日变化上,午后地闪电活动最为集中,16:00为峰值。环境条件分析表明,从全国来看,热力相关物理量对闪电发生指示意义最好,其次为水汽物理量,动力相关表征量的指示作用不明显。其中,K指数为全国范围的最佳指数,其最优阈值为37 ℃,同时发现低层水汽条件较好的区域对于K指数敏感性更高,其阈值也相对较高,比如华北、长江流域、华南地区。而对于中高纬度区域,大气层结不稳定对于闪电发生更敏感,因此最优抬升指数和抬升指数等指数的表现更好。水汽条件为闪电发生的必要因素,但水汽条件对闪电的指示意义不可单独用作闪电预报的依据,应结合大气环流和其他环境场特征来确定。相关结果为认识和预报全国和不同地区的闪电活动提供了客观参考。

    Abstract:

    Based on the lightning monitoring data from the Chinese ADTD (Advanced TOA and Direction system) lightning locator network and the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis data from 2010 to 2019, this analysis combines weather verification indicators such as TS scores and forecast deviations to provide the physical characteristics of environmental conditions related to lightning in different regions in China. The characteristics of lightning activity show a pattern of more lightning in the south and less in the north, with the highest lightning density in South China, followed by the eastern parts of Jiangnan and the eastern regions of Southwest China. Regarding monthly frequency variations, except for June, which sees a higher occurrence of lightning in South China, August records the highest lightning frequency nationwide and in most regions. In terms of diurnal variation, cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning activity is most concentrated in the afternoon, with the daily peak at 16:00. The analysis of environmental conditions indicates that thermal environmental characteristics significantly indicate lightning occurrence, and thermal-related physical quantities have the best indicative significance for lightning occurrence, followed by water vapour physical quantities. The indicative role of dynamic-related characteristic quantities is not significant. Among them, the K index is the best index nationwide, with an optimal threshold of 37 ℃. For different regions, there are significant differences in the conditions of low-level water vapour, mid-level water vapour saturation, cold air intensity, and temperature difference between high and low levels. Comprehensive statistics show that regions with better low-level water vapour conditions are more sensitive to the K index and have relatively higher thresholds, such as northern China, the Yangtze River Basin, and southern China. For mid to high latitude regions, atmospheric instability is more sensitive to lightning occurrence, so indices such as BLI and LI perform better. The water vapour condition is a necessary factor for lightning occurrence, but its indicative significance for lightning cannot be used alone as a basis for lightning prediction. It should be determined by combining atmospheric circulation and other environmental field characteristics. Dynamic effects are deemed a necessary condition for the development of severe convective weather, although their ranking in the verification of dynamic indicators is relatively lower, failing to accurately reflect their importance for lightning occurrence. The lightning forecasting in China mainly relies on the determination of the location of lightning occurrence. It is necessary to combine the atmospheric circulation situation and environmental water vapour, dynamics, and thermal conditions to determine the area and possibility of thunderstorm occurrence, and then measure the accuracy of the forecast through weather verification indicators. These findings provide an objective reference for understanding and forecasting lightning activity in different regions in China.

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关良,田付友,郑永光,曹艳察,刘自牧.2010—2019年中国闪电活动及其环境表征物理量分析研究[J].气象科技,2024,52(6):858~868

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  • 收稿日期:2023-11-23
  • 定稿日期:2024-09-30
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-12-25
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