不同地貌区域闪电代理雷达回波研究及应用分析
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中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2024-112)和创新发展专项(CXFZ2024J013)、四川省自然科学基金(2023NSFS0242)、高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室研究型重点专项(SCQXKJYJXZD202301)和青年专项(SCQXKJQN202227)共同资助


Research and Application Analysis of Lightning Proxy Radar Echo in Different Geomorphic Regions
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    摘要:

    利用闪电与雷达回波资料,通过箱线图分析和对数拟合方法,为四川省不同地貌区域建立了闪电代理雷达回波的拟合方程,并进行了个例检验。结果表明:四川盆地、川西高原及攀西地区的闪电频次与雷达回波强度间存在显著关系,随着闪电频次的增加,雷达回波强度离散度减小,但样本格点数也急剧减少。三个区域的代理回波强度与拟合闪电密度频次大小呈正比关系,盆地的拟合效果是三个区域中最优的,盆地的回波中位数和均值与闪电的拟合优度均达到了0.909,其回波值与闪电频次紧密相关,数据分布集中;川西高原次之,攀西地区因离散度大、频次跨度广而拟合较差。不同区域的拟合结果均整体偏弱,但是代理回波仍然能准确反映高值中心信息,而不同时刻的代理回波能够展现出回波的动态变化趋势,对雷暴预报预警具有重要价值。

    Abstract:

    This study delves into the relationship between lightning frequency and radar echo intensity across three distinct geomorphological regions in Sichuan Province (Sichuan Basin, Western Sichuan Plateau, and Panxi Region) based on lightning and radar echo data from 47 typical thunderstorm events occurring from June to August in 2020 and 2021. Employing boxplot analysis and logarithmic fitting methods, the study selects the maximum echo value within 0.03°×0.03° grid points from SWAN radar echo mosaics as the fitting factor for radar echoes and establishes a specific time window to accumulate lightning frequencies, thereby constructing a comprehensive sample dataset. The results reveal that the median and mean values of lightning frequency and radar echo intensity are relatively close in all three regions, with a generally symmetric data distribution. As lightning frequency increases, echo values tend to converge with reduced dispersion. Despite setting a minimum echo intensity threshold, the span of echo intensities corresponding to lightning frequencies in the Sichuan Basin remains relatively wide. A logarithmic distribution function is adopted to fit lightning frequency and radar echo, yielding satisfactory results in the Sichuan Basin and Western Sichuan Plateau, particularly in the Sichuan Basin where the goodness-of-fit for both the median and mean echo values versus lightning frequency reaches 0.909, indicating a strong correlation and high-precision fit. Conversely, the fit in the Panxi Region is less satisfactory, suggesting a weaker correlation between radar echo values and lightning frequencies in this area. The study further observes that as lightning frequency increases, the median and mean fitting curves of radar echo values in all three regions initially rise rapidly before levelling off, albeit with regional variations. These findings not only uncover the intricate relationship between lightning frequency and radar echo intensity but also provide a scientific basis for regional lightning warning and monitoring. From the perspective of individual case validation of fitted echoes, the fitting results in these three regions exhibit a tendency towards underestimation, likely due to the relatively low grid-point lightning density frequency used in calculations to reduce dispersion and ensure data stability. Nevertheless, the proxy echoes still accurately reflect high-value centre information consistent with observations, which holds significant value for thunderstorm forecasting and warning as well as the application of lightning data. In the future, further validation through more individual cases can be conducted to optimise the fitting algorithm, formula, and method, thereby enhancing the fitting results. Additionally, the fitting formula can be incorporated into model experiments to explore its application effects in different topographical and geomorphological regions.

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周威,魏庆,赵旋,王彬雁,张武龙,周长春.不同地貌区域闪电代理雷达回波研究及应用分析[J].气象科技,2025,53(2):201~210

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  • 收稿日期:2024-03-28
  • 定稿日期:2024-11-19
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-04-21
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