基于CMA-GFS模式的冷云作业潜势预报研究
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中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2024J028和CXFZ2025J038)、国家自然科学基金(U2342222和42575092)、中国气象局人工影响天气中心创新团队项目(WMC2023IT01)、西南区域人工影响天气能力建设项目(SCIT-ZG(Z)-2024100001-2)共同资助


Research on Potential Prediction of Cold Cloud Seeding Based on CMA-GFS Model
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    摘要:

    利用中国气象局全球数值预报模式CMA-GFS的温湿度预报参量,实现了不同云层云顶温度计算,对有利降水产生的过冷水潜势进行识别,形成168 h预报时效内的全国范围人影冷云作业潜势预报产品,结合人影飞机观测对过冷水潜势算法和冷云作业潜势预报进行了检验。结果表明:过冷水潜势算法可以合理表达过冷水出现的可能性,阈值为15%时积冰命中率为97.7%,无积冰命中率66.0%;阈值为25%时的预报技巧评分最高为0.74。冷云作业潜势预报产品在2024年春季人影增雨作业中开展了应用, 以40%为识别阈值则8架次含过冷水的积冰个例预报命中率在87.5%,2架次无过冷水积冰个例预报均准确,可预报时效在60~168 h之间,潜势大小可以反映积冰和过冷水的强弱,相比定量过冷水预报有一定优势。该产品可为提前1周开展人影作业过程预报和作业展望业务提供技术支撑。

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    The implementation of weather modification operations involves the advance planning and deployment of equipment and personnel. If the direction of the weather system and the nature of the cloud formations can be accurately forecasted one week in advance, it plays a significant and meaningful role in the allocation of field operation resources. Supercooled water clouds are the primary targets for weather modification operations such as rain enhancement, rain suppression, and hail suppression. The formation of supercooled water depends on specific environmental conditions, including temperature, humidity, and vertical motion. To support operational forecasting for weather modification, it is necessary to accurately characterise supercooled water and its environmental fields at least one week in advance. Using the temperature and humidity forecast parameters from the CMA-GFS global model, the cloud-top temperatures for different cloud layers are calculated. The CIP (Crystal Icing Potential) algorithm is improved into a supercooled water content potential algorithm. By establishing a relational function between SLW (Supercooled Liquid Water) content and key parameters including temperature, relative humidity, and cloud-top temperature, this enhanced algorithm enables effective identification of SLW potential conducive to precipitation enhancement. A cold cloud seeding potential forecast product with a 168-hour forecast period is developed. The supercooled water potential algorithm is evaluated using both the binary classification method for icing events and the probability of detection (POD) method, incorporating 91 aircraft icing observations. Additionally, the cold-cloud seeding potential forecast results for spring 2024 are validated against 10 weather modification aircraft observations. The results show that the supercooled water potential algorithm effectively represents the likelihood of supercooled water occurrence. Validation of the supercooled water potential algorithm is conducted using 91 aircraft observation cases. When applying a 100% threshold, the icing detection rate reaches 54.5%. The icing detection rate is 97.7% and the no-icing detection rate is 66.0% when using a 15% threshold. The TSS score is 0.74 when the threshold is 25%. The cold cloud seeding potential forecast product is applied during the spring 2024 weather modification operations for rain enhancement. Out of 8 flight cases involving icing, the forecast accuracy is 87.5%, and both the 2 flight cases without icing are accurately predicted. The predictable forecast time ranges between 60 to 168 hours, and the potential reflects the intensity of icing and supercooled water, showing certain advantages over quantitative supercooled water forecasts. This product provides technical support for the process forecasting and operational outlook of weather modification activities up to one week in advance.

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孙晶,史月琴,左懂飞,麦榕,安英玉,陈英英.基于CMA-GFS模式的冷云作业潜势预报研究[J].气象科技,2025,53(6):869~879

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  • 收稿日期:2025-03-04
  • 最后修改日期:2025-09-28
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-24
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