江苏夏收夏种期间连阴雨时空分布特征及其对墒情的影响
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“十四五”国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFD2300200)、中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2024J023)共同资助


Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics and Impacts of Continuous Rain on Soil Moisture Conditions during Period of Summer Harvesting and Sowing in Jiangsu Province
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    摘要:

    在气候变暖大背景下,掌握夏收夏种期连阴雨发生规律,对规避油菜/小麦成熟收获、水稻/旱作物播种出苗阶段趋于频发的连阴雨灾害风险至关重要。本文利用1981—2020年气象、土壤水分、作物生产进度等资料,基于夏收夏种起止时间和连阴雨判定条件,测算连阴雨强度指数;建立连阴雨强度指数与10 cm土壤相对湿度增量对应关系,确定夏收夏种期连阴雨强度影响等级;利用时空统计和EOF(Empirical Orthogonal Function)方法,划分不同区域、不同年代、不同等级、不同阶段,分析江苏夏收夏种期连阴雨时空分布特征和发生规律。结果表明:时间上,江苏各区域连阴雨强度呈0.15~0.25/10a上升趋势,强发时段集中在2001—2020年,轻度、强、特强连阴雨多发于5月下旬、6月中旬、6月下旬;空间上,连阴雨发生频次和强度呈南多北少、北部轻中南部重,各强度等级连阴雨发生次数均表现为苏南多于苏中多于苏北地区。在实际生产过程中,需重点关注夏收夏种期连阴雨常发、重发区域和时段,科学防御农田渍涝、优化配置农机装备,合理实现风险转移。

    Abstract:

    Against the backdrop of global warming, understanding the occurrence patterns of continuous rain during the summer harvest and planting period is crucial for avoiding the increasingly frequent risks of continuous rain disasters during the maturation and harvest stages of rapeseed/wheat, as well as the sowing and emergence stages of rice/dryland crops. Using data on meteorology, soil moisture, and crop production progress from 1981 to 2020, this study calculates the continuous rain intensity index based on the start and end times of the summer harvest and planting period and the criteria for determining continuous rain. It establishes the corresponding relationship between the continuous rain intensity index and the increment of 10 cm soil relative humidity and defines the impact levels of continuous rain intensity during the summer harvest and planting period. By employing spatial-temporal statistics and EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) methods, the study classifies different regions, decades, intensity levels, and stages to analyse the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics and occurrence patterns of continuous rain during the summer harvest and planting period in Jiangsu Province. The results show that, in terms of time, the number of continuous rain occurrences in southern, central, and northern Jiangsu is 0.38 times/year, 0.72 times/year, and 0.98 times/year, respectively. The high-incidence period is concentrated in 2010-2020, with the occurrence intensity showing an upward trend of 0.15-0.25 per decade. The periods of strong occurrence are concentrated in 2001-2020, and mild, strong, extra strong continuous rains mostly occur in late May-early June and late June. In terms of space, the frequency and intensity of continuous rain show a pattern of “more in the south and less in the north” and “lighter in the north and heavier in the central and southern regions.” The number of occurrences of continuous rain at all intensity levels follows the order: southern Jiangsu > central Jiangsu > northern Jiangsu. In terms of typical years, the intensity of continuous rain in the Lixiahe region of Jiangsu is the strongest in 2003, 2015, and 2020; the intensity is relatively strong in the north-central part of the area between the Yangtze and Huaihe Rivers in 2003, 2006, and 2012; and the intensity is relatively strong in the central part of southern Jiangsu in 2003, 2015, and 2020. In actual production, focus should be placed on the frequent and severe occurrence regions and periods of continuous rain during the summer harvest and planting period, so as to scientifically prevent farmland waterlogging, optimise the allocation of agricultural machinery and equipment, and rationally achieve risk transfer.

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任义方,项瑛.江苏夏收夏种期间连阴雨时空分布特征及其对墒情的影响[J].气象科技,2025,53(6):915~926

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  • 收稿日期:2025-03-07
  • 最后修改日期:2025-08-18
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-24
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