Seasonal Characteristics of Clinical Rate of InfluenzaLike Illness in Shenzhen and Its Meteorological Forecast Model
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    Abstract:

    The relationship between influenza and meteorological factors in Shenzhen is analyzed by using the detailed data of influenza cases and meteorological data from 2003 to 2007 in Shenzhen. The results show that spring and summer is the influenza epidemic period in Shenzhen, and the epidemic period is tending to move toward summer gradually; the seasonal variation has a close relationship with the temperature and humidity; the influenza peak occurs frequently in the case of temperature being in the range of 25 ℃ to 30 ℃ and higher humidity. The regressive equation for forecasting the clinical rates of InfluenzaLike Illness (ILI) is established. The minimum air temperature, minimum relative humidity and sunshine duration are the typical meteorological forecasting factors.

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翟红楠,张莉,孙石阳,覃军,陈正洪.深圳市流感就诊率季节特征及夏季流感就诊率气象预报模型[J].气象科技英文版,2009,37(6):709-712.

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  • Received:November 12,2008
  • Revised:June 02,2009
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