Characteristics of Thunderstorm Weather and GANN Predicting Model Based on the Thunderstorm Disaster Variation in Suzhou
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    Abstract:

    According to the data of thunderstorm days of five weather stations in Suzhou from 1957 to 2008, the timespace distribution of thunderstorms and the relationship of thunderstorms to rainfall and temperature in Suzhou are analyzed. The results show that Suzhou is an area attacked frequently by Lightning, and more lightning activities happen in the south part than in the north, with maximum difference being 3.21 to 4.65 days. There is great interannual variability of thunderstorm weather in Suzhou, and the annual cumulative number of thunderstorm days is up to 37 days. There is a linear decreasing trend in thunderstorm days with the range being 1.61 to 2.89 days per 10 years. Thunderstorm days exhibit a singlepeak type seasonal distribution, occur mostly in summer and least in winter, and centralized in the period from April to September, with maximum in July and minimum in December. The daily distribution is also the singlepeak type, with the maximum frequency from 16:00 to 18:00. The longrange mean series of average thunderstorm days has significantly positive correlation with rainfall and temperature. In order to predict the trend of thunderstorms, taking Yongqiao as an example, the greyBP combined model is built, and the results show that the year of 2025 is the next year of thunderstorms occurring most frequently.

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汪顺勤,孙惠合,张丙振.宿州雷暴气候特征及其灾变GANN预测模型研究[J].气象科技英文版,2009,37(6):753-758.

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  • Received:April 02,2009
  • Revised:July 10,2009
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