Application of Analog Forecast to 4-10 Day Wind Forecasting around Bohai Sea
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    Abstract:

    According to the principles of analog forecast, the stepbystep filter and the smallest degree of analogue deviation are applied to make 4to10day wind forecast for the area around Bohai Sea based on the T213 numerical forecast products, NCEP reanalyzed daily data, and the wind speed data of 72 stations around Bohai Sea. Various forecast schemes for 4 to 10 days are established. Forecast results were tested to choose the optimal scheme, which is used to forecast wind speeds four times per day and the daily maximum wind speeds for 72 stations around Bohai sea from 2007 to 2008. The results show that the TS score for windscale 0 to 2 forecast is better in forecasting wind speeds four times per day, and the 4to10day mean TS score is 67%; the 4to10day mean TS score for wind scale 3 to 4 of maximum daily wind speed forecast is 54.1%; above wind scale 5, the 4to10day mean TS score is 17.1%. The results also indicate that the analog method is of good capability in 4to10day wind speed forecasting.

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陈录元,尚可政,周海,王式功,杨德保.环渤海地区4~10天风速预报中相似预报法的应用[J].气象科技英文版,2012,40(2):219-225.

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History
  • Received:August 09,2010
  • Revised:November 01,2010
  • Adopted:
  • Online: April 23,2012
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