Projected Climate Change in Guizhou under RCPs Scenarios
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    Abstract:

    The changing trends of temperature and precipitation for the 21st century over Guizhou under RCPs scenarios are analyzed using the multimodel dataset of World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 The results show a relatively good (poor) performance of temperature (precipitation) simulation in Guizhou based on the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE). It is found that the projected temperature (precipitation) shows a warmer (wetter) trend of 05 ℃/10a (10%/10a), 02 ℃/10a (09%/10), and 01 ℃/10a (06%/10a), respectively, in Guizhou under the scenarios of RCP85, RCP45, and RCP26, with an increase of 45 ℃ (52%), 23 ℃ (54%), and 13 ℃ (42%) relative to the reference period in the end of the 21st century. From the perspective of the spatial distribution, the increase of annual temperature relative to the reference period at the end of the 21st century gradually grows up from southwest to northeast, while precipitation has different change for different scenarios and areas. Overall, the higher the greenhouse gas concentration in the 21st century, the faster the rate of warming and wetting.

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张娇艳,李扬,吴战平,张东海,李忠燕. RCPs情景下贵州省气候变化预估分析[J].气象科技英文版,2017,45(1):108-115.

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History
  • Received:February 02,2016
  • Revised:October 13,2016
  • Adopted:
  • Online: February 28,2017
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