Archive > Volume 45 Issue 1 > 2017,45(1):195-202 Prev Next

Characteristics and Prediction of Key Climatic Factors Affecting Rate of Marketable Fruits in Wuhu

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    Abstract:
    Using the data of the rate of marketable fruits from 1994 to 2014 in the study area, the monthly meteorological data in Wuhu from 1965 to 2014, 88 new monthly general circulation indexes from July 1981 to June 2014 and 26 SST indexes from the national climate center, based on correlation analysis, linear trend analysis, MannKendall, and stepwise multiple regression analysis, the key climatic factors influencing the rate of marketable fruits are chosen. On this basis, the characteristics and predictions of the chosen climatic factors are analyzed. The results show that the key influence climatic factors include monthly average temperature (〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗7,〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗8), monthly average maximum temperature (〖WTBX〗Tmax〖WTBZ〗7,〖WTBX〗Tmax〖WTBZ〗8), monthly average minimum temperature (〖WTBX〗Tmin〖WTBZ〗7,〖WTBX〗Tmin〖WTBZ〗8), monthly average relative humidity (〖WTBX〗RH〖WTBZ〗7,〖WTBX〗RH〖WTBZ〗8), monthly average sunshine duration (〖WTBX〗S〖WTBZ〗7,〖WTBX〗S〖WTBZ〗8) in July and August, monthly average daily temperature range (Δ〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗8) in August. In nearly 50 years, 〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗7、〖WTBX〗Tmax〖WTBZ〗7,and 〖WTBX〗Tmin〖WTBZ〗7raised significantly, but 〖WTBX〗RH〖WTBZ〗7、Δ〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗8, and 〖WTBX〗S〖WTBZ〗8dropped significantly. 〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗7、〖WTBX〗Tmax〖WTBZ〗7、Δ〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗8showed a gradual feature, and 〖WTBX〗Tmin〖WTBZ〗7、〖WTBX〗RH〖WTBZ〗7、Δ〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗8changed suddenly. These key climatic factors were significantly correlated with many general circulation indexes and SST indexes in previous 12 months, from which key indicators are chosen as the shortterm climatic forecast indexes of the key climatic factors influencing the rate of grape marketable fruits in July and August in Wuhu, and the predicting equations of the key climatic factors are worked out. This study can provide references for grape planting in dealing with the impacts of climate change effectively.

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External LinksChina Meteorological AdministrationCMA Meteorological Observation CentreChinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing Meteorological ServiceNational Satellite Meteorological Center
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