Archive > Volume 49 Issue 4 > 2021,49(4):561-568 Prev Next

Time-Lagged Ensemble Forecast of Hourly Precipitation Based on SWCWARMS Model

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    Abstract:
    Based on the hourly precipitation from the 9 km×9 km resolution SWCWARMS model, ensemble members are formed by the timelagged ensemble forecast method. A new hourly precipitation forecast is obtained from the ensemble average of differential weights, which are calculated by the SAL scores of ensemble members. This study verified the timelagged ensemble and the model uptodate forecast of hourly precipitation in Sichuan from 1 to 31 August 2019 by the SAL, TS and BIAS evaluation method. The results show: (1) The timelagged ensemble method led to improvement on the overall level of the rainfall intensity and location forecast. The values L and A of SAL scores were both closer to 0. (2) The clearrain TS score of timelagged ensemble forecast was higher, and the percentage increase was about 10%. The method can reduce the false alarm of rain forecast. (3) In the lead time of nowcasting, the improvement of the high intensity precipitation forecast was also obvious.

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External LinksChina Meteorological AdministrationCMA Meteorological Observation CentreChinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing Meteorological ServiceNational Satellite Meteorological Center
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