Archive > Volume 49 Issue 5 > 2021,49(5):746-753 Prev Next

Moving Average of Optimal Time-Window Method For 2 m Temperature Forecast Correction of GRAPES-GFS

  • Article
  • Figures
  • Metrics
  • Preview PDF
  • Reference
  • Related
  • Cited by
  • Materials
    Abstract:
    Using GRAPESGFS forecast data and temperature observation data of Guangxi regional automatic weather stations during 2017-2018, errors of the 2 m temperature forecast of the GRAPESGFS model over Guangxi are analyzed. It is found that the 2 m temperature forecast of the GRAPESGFS model is lower than the observation in Guangxi. Forecast errors increase with the forecast time and regularly appear in the mountain areas in the northern Guangxi, Zuojiang, Youjiang river valley, and coastal areas. The temperature forecast error at noon is systematic in spring, summer and autumn but the errors at noon in winter and that at night in all seasons are random. To develop the optimal timewindow of the moving average method, we compare different moving average solutions with the unfixed timewindows and verify its improvement with the trial correction products of the optimal timewindow moving average method during 2020. Results show that the moving average solutions of fixed timewindow, optimal seasonal timewindow, and monthly optimal time window are all effective in spring, summer, and autumn. The correction skill is higher at noon than that at night. Among all the solutions, fixed long timewindow (15 to 60 d) solution, seasonal optimal timewindow solution and monthly optimal timewindow solution are more effective. Running optimal timewindow method based on different moving average solutions can steadily improve the 2 m temperature forecast.

    Keywords:


    Project Supported:
    Clc Number:
External LinksChina Meteorological AdministrationCMA Meteorological Observation CentreChinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing Meteorological ServiceNational Satellite Meteorological Center
You are thevisitors
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.