Volume 32,Issue 2,2004 Table of Contents
2004, 32(2):65-70.
Abstract:
Separation of the mesoscale flow field of an abrupt rainstorm in the central and southern parts of Shaanxi was conducted with three various mesoscale filtering methods. It is shown that there exist mesoscale vortexes or convergence lines in the lower atmosphere over the corresponding precipitation zone when an abrupt rainstorm happens. All the mesoscale systems from 200 to 1200 km can be separated from conventional radiosonde data. The selection filter is good for separating the low-level mesoscale systems;the station filter is simple,feasible and suitable for the middle-level;and the 9-point filter is applicable to both,whose filtered mesoscale convergence system is situated on the upstream side of the rainstorm zone.
Separation of the mesoscale flow field of an abrupt rainstorm in the central and southern parts of Shaanxi was conducted with three various mesoscale filtering methods. It is shown that there exist mesoscale vortexes or convergence lines in the lower atmosphere over the corresponding precipitation zone when an abrupt rainstorm happens. All the mesoscale systems from 200 to 1200 km can be separated from conventional radiosonde data. The selection filter is good for separating the low-level mesoscale systems;the station filter is simple,feasible and suitable for the middle-level;and the 9-point filter is applicable to both,whose filtered mesoscale convergence system is situated on the upstream side of the rainstorm zone.
2004, 32(2):71-75.
Abstract:
Investigation was conducted on a heavy rain influenced by the typhoon inverted trough of the tropical cyclone "Mekkhala"(2002),which landed the southwestern Guangxi Province. The relevant changes of physical variable fields and wind profile and the fluctuation of surface wind fields are analyzed. The environmental conditions for the strong convection that caused local heavy rainfall around the area where the typhoon inverted trough and the westerly trough joined are discussed in detailed.
Investigation was conducted on a heavy rain influenced by the typhoon inverted trough of the tropical cyclone "Mekkhala"(2002),which landed the southwestern Guangxi Province. The relevant changes of physical variable fields and wind profile and the fluctuation of surface wind fields are analyzed. The environmental conditions for the strong convection that caused local heavy rainfall around the area where the typhoon inverted trough and the westerly trough joined are discussed in detailed.
2004, 32(2):76.
Abstract:
Using daily air temperature data of Shijiazhuang from 1955 to 2002,the thresholds of extrema are estimated in terms of the 95th and the 5th percentiles,and the temperature extrema are identified. Analysis of cold and warm extreme events occurred in 2002 in Shijiazhuang shows that the above-mentioned schemes can effectively identify temperature extrema. The calculated temperature trend rates show that the climate in Shijiazhuang had obviously warming trends. With the climate warming,the continual and record-broken high temperature events increased;the cold period tended to shorten,cold days to decrease and warm days to increase. The relation of temperature extreme events and climate warming in Shijiazhuang is studied by using the correlative analysis method. The decrease of extreme cold days was most obvious. The urbanization effect enhanced climate-warming rates in the urban area,and especially the variation of the daily lowest temperature was most evident. The increasing/decreasing of warm/cold events was quicker in the urban area than in suburb. Under the background of climate warming,the decrease of cold events in winter and their potential impacts on human being must be paid special attention.
Using daily air temperature data of Shijiazhuang from 1955 to 2002,the thresholds of extrema are estimated in terms of the 95th and the 5th percentiles,and the temperature extrema are identified. Analysis of cold and warm extreme events occurred in 2002 in Shijiazhuang shows that the above-mentioned schemes can effectively identify temperature extrema. The calculated temperature trend rates show that the climate in Shijiazhuang had obviously warming trends. With the climate warming,the continual and record-broken high temperature events increased;the cold period tended to shorten,cold days to decrease and warm days to increase. The relation of temperature extreme events and climate warming in Shijiazhuang is studied by using the correlative analysis method. The decrease of extreme cold days was most obvious. The urbanization effect enhanced climate-warming rates in the urban area,and especially the variation of the daily lowest temperature was most evident. The increasing/decreasing of warm/cold events was quicker in the urban area than in suburb. Under the background of climate warming,the decrease of cold events in winter and their potential impacts on human being must be paid special attention.
2004, 32(2):81-85.
Abstract:
The regression analysis indicates that there are asymmetry characteristics of residual distribution in the Meiyu heavy/torrential rain forecasting model. These phenomena are caused by some Ligh Leverage Cases. There is irrationality in the residuals of these high leverage cases statistically,resulting in Least Square (LS) errors in estimating the regression coefficient,consequently errors of heavy/torrential rain forecasting.A regression diagnosis prediction model for heavy/torrential rain forecasting is proposed. The example analysis shows that this new model is superior to general regression prediction models. The further analysis indicates that the irrationality of the Meiyu heavy/torrential rain regression forecasting model is resulted from its mathematical characteristics,not by chance.
The regression analysis indicates that there are asymmetry characteristics of residual distribution in the Meiyu heavy/torrential rain forecasting model. These phenomena are caused by some Ligh Leverage Cases. There is irrationality in the residuals of these high leverage cases statistically,resulting in Least Square (LS) errors in estimating the regression coefficient,consequently errors of heavy/torrential rain forecasting.A regression diagnosis prediction model for heavy/torrential rain forecasting is proposed. The example analysis shows that this new model is superior to general regression prediction models. The further analysis indicates that the irrationality of the Meiyu heavy/torrential rain regression forecasting model is resulted from its mathematical characteristics,not by chance.
2004, 32(2):86.
Abstract:
The characteristics of temperature rainfall and sunshine duration in the last 50 years were analyzed based on the meteorological data of the New Binhai district. The results show that the annual mean temperature,winter mean temperature and summer mean temperature have been rising generally. From the 1950s to 1980s,winters witnessed stronger warming than summers and in the 1990s temperature increase became more obvious. The rainfall showed a decreasing trend generally,and reached the minimum of the 1990s in the last 50 years. The annual mean sunshine duration had a decreasing trend too and the 1990s witnessed the most obvious change. According to the analysis above,the weather in the New Binhai district is becoming warmer,especially in the last 10 years. The sharp rise of temperature,sharp decrease of rainfall and less sunshine duration are the main problems in the New Binhai district.
The characteristics of temperature rainfall and sunshine duration in the last 50 years were analyzed based on the meteorological data of the New Binhai district. The results show that the annual mean temperature,winter mean temperature and summer mean temperature have been rising generally. From the 1950s to 1980s,winters witnessed stronger warming than summers and in the 1990s temperature increase became more obvious. The rainfall showed a decreasing trend generally,and reached the minimum of the 1990s in the last 50 years. The annual mean sunshine duration had a decreasing trend too and the 1990s witnessed the most obvious change. According to the analysis above,the weather in the New Binhai district is becoming warmer,especially in the last 10 years. The sharp rise of temperature,sharp decrease of rainfall and less sunshine duration are the main problems in the New Binhai district.
2004, 32(2):90-96.
Abstract:
利用GMS-5卫星云图、常规历史资料和T106资料，通过湿位涡、螺旋度、湿Q矢量及散度、锋生函数等理论，对1999年5月7日昆明大暴雨进行诊断分析，并从影响系统及热能条件与1986年6月7日的昆明大暴雨对比，结果表明：在昆明春季连续几次冷空气影响下，由于西南急流的建立，在冷空气的协同作用下，也能造成大暴雨天气。昆明处于200 hPa高空急流右侧，700 hPa低空急流左前侧；物理机制上，云南处于湿舌区内，昆明700 hPa湿位涡经历了由MPV1大于0、MPV2小于0到MPV1小于0、MPV2大于0的转换。昆明大暴雨出现在：①MPV2小于0等值线密集区的南部；②700hPa垂直螺旋度正值中心南部；③湿Q矢量辐合及散度负值中心处。
利用GMS-5卫星云图、常规历史资料和T106资料，通过湿位涡、螺旋度、湿Q矢量及散度、锋生函数等理论，对1999年5月7日昆明大暴雨进行诊断分析，并从影响系统及热能条件与1986年6月7日的昆明大暴雨对比，结果表明：在昆明春季连续几次冷空气影响下，由于西南急流的建立，在冷空气的协同作用下，也能造成大暴雨天气。昆明处于200 hPa高空急流右侧，700 hPa低空急流左前侧；物理机制上，云南处于湿舌区内，昆明700 hPa湿位涡经历了由MPV1大于0、MPV2小于0到MPV1小于0、MPV2大于0的转换。昆明大暴雨出现在：①MPV2小于0等值线密集区的南部；②700hPa垂直螺旋度正值中心南部；③湿Q矢量辐合及散度负值中心处。
7 Analysis of Climate Characteristics and Circulation Features of Torrential Rainfall in Shijiazhuang
2004, 32(2):97-100.
Abstract:
The climate statistical characteristics of torrential rainfall events in Shijiazhuang are analyzed. Simultaneously,the historical weather maps of 59 typical cases are studied and the weather processes are divided into 8 types. The happening period and falling area for each type are also summed up. Furthermore,the typical system characteristics are discussed and the weather-type models are worked out,which can be overlapped on the weather map on the MICAPS platform,so to improve torrential rain prediction.
The climate statistical characteristics of torrential rainfall events in Shijiazhuang are analyzed. Simultaneously,the historical weather maps of 59 typical cases are studied and the weather processes are divided into 8 types. The happening period and falling area for each type are also summed up. Furthermore,the typical system characteristics are discussed and the weather-type models are worked out,which can be overlapped on the weather map on the MICAPS platform,so to improve torrential rain prediction.
2004, 32(2):101-104.
Abstract:
The statistical analysis of observed sunshine duration,air temperature,precipitation and evaporation in Wuwei,Gansu Province from 1961 to 2000 indicates that air temperature kept increasing during the previous 40 years,and the temperature increase speeded up in the 1990's,which was the most obvious in winter,less in spring and autumn,and the least obvious in summer. The sunshine and precipitation had an increasing trend,and evaporation had a decreasing trend. But the increasing rates were not big. The effects of climate variation on the ecology and agriculture in the eastern Hexi corridor were analyzed and some suggestions for utilizing climate resources are given.
The statistical analysis of observed sunshine duration,air temperature,precipitation and evaporation in Wuwei,Gansu Province from 1961 to 2000 indicates that air temperature kept increasing during the previous 40 years,and the temperature increase speeded up in the 1990's,which was the most obvious in winter,less in spring and autumn,and the least obvious in summer. The sunshine and precipitation had an increasing trend,and evaporation had a decreasing trend. But the increasing rates were not big. The effects of climate variation on the ecology and agriculture in the eastern Hexi corridor were analyzed and some suggestions for utilizing climate resources are given.
2004, 32(2):105-109.
Abstract:
Jiangsu Province saw slightly less sunshine and uneven distribution of rainfall in 2002. Continuous rainfall over the southern Huaihe River Basin caused heavy damages. On the other hand,there was a period of drought from summer to fall in the north part of of the northern Huaihe River Basin and several typhoons and storms attacked the province. The growth and yields of summer crops were affected by weather disasters. Weather conditions were generally favorable to the growth and development of paddy rice,so brought a good harvest all over the province. But for cotton,the weather has both advantages and disadvantages. Analyses are made of the characteristics and distribution of main agrometeorological disasters and of impacts on the growth of crops in this province in 2002.
Jiangsu Province saw slightly less sunshine and uneven distribution of rainfall in 2002. Continuous rainfall over the southern Huaihe River Basin caused heavy damages. On the other hand,there was a period of drought from summer to fall in the north part of of the northern Huaihe River Basin and several typhoons and storms attacked the province. The growth and yields of summer crops were affected by weather disasters. Weather conditions were generally favorable to the growth and development of paddy rice,so brought a good harvest all over the province. But for cotton,the weather has both advantages and disadvantages. Analyses are made of the characteristics and distribution of main agrometeorological disasters and of impacts on the growth of crops in this province in 2002.
2004, 32(2):110-115.
Abstract:
The Kriging algorithm was used to realize spatial interpolation of weather data. Comparisons were done for the results of the Kriging algorithm,the Surfer software,and the manually analyzed,as well as for the analysis results of several statistics. The comparisons show that the spherical mode should be used in the variation function for weather data. The values of sea-level air pressure should be compressed to reduce errors in the Kriging algorithm. The radius of the spherical model should be ten longitudes/latitudes or more for the conventional data.
The Kriging algorithm was used to realize spatial interpolation of weather data. Comparisons were done for the results of the Kriging algorithm,the Surfer software,and the manually analyzed,as well as for the analysis results of several statistics. The comparisons show that the spherical mode should be used in the variation function for weather data. The values of sea-level air pressure should be compressed to reduce errors in the Kriging algorithm. The radius of the spherical model should be ten longitudes/latitudes or more for the conventional data.
2004, 32(2):116-119.
Abstract:
Considering shortcomings of the rectangle-mesh method,a method is proposed for drawing automatically meteorological contours by using triangle-meshes. The auto-drawing of contours was realized through interpolating on sides, triangulating,and then connecting the contours on the triangulated meshes in certain order. The algorithm of contour auto-generating is given and the contour charts drawn by the rectangle-mesh method and Grads are compared. The results show that the method is practicable and the resulting outcome is more accurate and reasonable.
Considering shortcomings of the rectangle-mesh method,a method is proposed for drawing automatically meteorological contours by using triangle-meshes. The auto-drawing of contours was realized through interpolating on sides, triangulating,and then connecting the contours on the triangulated meshes in certain order. The algorithm of contour auto-generating is given and the contour charts drawn by the rectangle-mesh method and Grads are compared. The results show that the method is practicable and the resulting outcome is more accurate and reasonable.
2004, 32(2):120-122.
Abstract:
The operational system "Retrieval and Analysis System of Digital Weather Chart Based on MICAPS and Conventional Weather Information," based on the "9210 Project" and MICAPS for auto-saving,cleaning-up,retrieving and analyzing of weather charts is introduced. The capabilities and its application in practice of the highly automatized and friendly designed operational system are described in detail.
The operational system "Retrieval and Analysis System of Digital Weather Chart Based on MICAPS and Conventional Weather Information," based on the "9210 Project" and MICAPS for auto-saving,cleaning-up,retrieving and analyzing of weather charts is introduced. The capabilities and its application in practice of the highly automatized and friendly designed operational system are described in detail.
2004, 32(2):123-125.
Abstract:
By means of successive regression method and atmospheric environmental monitoring and surface conventional observation data,the air pollutant concentrations of TSP and SO 2 in Benxi,Liaoning Province were analyzed,and the forecasting equation was constructed. The forecasting verification was performed on the two kinds of air pollutants.
By means of successive regression method and atmospheric environmental monitoring and surface conventional observation data,the air pollutant concentrations of TSP and SO 2 in Benxi,Liaoning Province were analyzed,and the forecasting equation was constructed. The forecasting verification was performed on the two kinds of air pollutants.
2004, 32(2):126-128131.
Abstract:
通过分析2001、2002年延安市日光温室内的温度资料，得出当外界气温达-20℃时，棚内温度可降至0℃以下，棚内作物受冻害，据此确定了强低温天气和气象服务标准；结合延安市宝塔区1951～2002年气象资料，分析了强低温天气分布特点及其对日光温室农业生产的影响，同时给出对策措施、建议和气象服务重点。
通过分析2001、2002年延安市日光温室内的温度资料，得出当外界气温达-20℃时，棚内温度可降至0℃以下，棚内作物受冻害，据此确定了强低温天气和气象服务标准；结合延安市宝塔区1951～2002年气象资料，分析了强低温天气分布特点及其对日光温室农业生产的影响，同时给出对策措施、建议和气象服务重点。
2004, 32(2):129-131.
Abstract:
A typhoon decision-making support system,which has been put to use in Zhoushan,is described. Based on a large number of meteorological and hydrological data,real-time observations,and important information about flood-prevention facilities in Zhoushan,a typhoon composite database is established. Through the system,the similar typhoon can be found by searching for the database when a typhoon approach. Its final report can help the government prevent and resist typhoons,to reduce loss effectively.
A typhoon decision-making support system,which has been put to use in Zhoushan,is described. Based on a large number of meteorological and hydrological data,real-time observations,and important information about flood-prevention facilities in Zhoushan,a typhoon composite database is established. Through the system,the similar typhoon can be found by searching for the database when a typhoon approach. Its final report can help the government prevent and resist typhoons,to reduce loss effectively.
2004, 32(2):132-134.
Abstract:
The stepwise regression analysis was carried out between the death toll in emergency cases and meteorological factors in Alaty of Xinjiang Province. The results show that there is good correlation between monthly/seasonal death toll and mean temperature,maximum temperature,minimum temperature,mean pressure,sunshine duration. The meteorological factor having the greatest influence on the monthly death toll of cerebral blood diseases is pressure (positive correlation),and that on breathe system diseases is temperature (negative correlation). For all the equations,it is shown that in winter,there is negative correlation between death toll and temperature,and positive correlation between death toll and pressure;in summer,there is positive correlation between death toll and temperature,and negative correlation between death toll and pressure. It means that the death toll is relatively high in the winter with low temperature and high pressure,and in the summer with high temperature and low pressure.
The stepwise regression analysis was carried out between the death toll in emergency cases and meteorological factors in Alaty of Xinjiang Province. The results show that there is good correlation between monthly/seasonal death toll and mean temperature,maximum temperature,minimum temperature,mean pressure,sunshine duration. The meteorological factor having the greatest influence on the monthly death toll of cerebral blood diseases is pressure (positive correlation),and that on breathe system diseases is temperature (negative correlation). For all the equations,it is shown that in winter,there is negative correlation between death toll and temperature,and positive correlation between death toll and pressure;in summer,there is positive correlation between death toll and temperature,and negative correlation between death toll and pressure. It means that the death toll is relatively high in the winter with low temperature and high pressure,and in the summer with high temperature and low pressure.
2004, 32(2):135-136.
Abstract:
By means of Microsoft Visual Studio.NET 2003,a graphic editing and analyzing software was developed. Oriented to the needs of climatic chart editing and analyzing technology,it has been applied to the provincial-level climatic operation in China
By means of Microsoft Visual Studio.NET 2003,a graphic editing and analyzing software was developed. Oriented to the needs of climatic chart editing and analyzing technology,it has been applied to the provincial-level climatic operation in China
External LinksChina Meteorological AdministrationCMA Meteorological Observation CentreChinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing Meteorological ServiceNational Satellite Meteorological Center
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.