Volume 34,Issue 6,2006 Table of Contents
2006, 34(6):649-655.
Abstract:
With one-dimension photochemical model,the simulation is conducted on the diurnal variation of O_3,NO,NO_2,CO and SO_2 on 9 September 2001 in stable weather and the controlling factors for the diurnal change are explained.The preliminary analysis shows that the O_3 concentration is sensitive to non-methane hydrocarbon(NMHC).The increase or decrease of NMHC concentration results in the distinct variation of ozone concentration.The cause of NO,CO and SO_2 concentration increase from 20:00 to 23:00 on 9 September 2001 is the weak vertical diffusion and accumulated pollutants at the lower atmosphere at night.The producing and depleting mechanisms of O_3 are complex and the transportation is important for O_3 and its precursors.Though one-dimension model can reveal the main factors influencing O_3 concentration,the three-dimension model is needed to explain more phenomena.These conclusions are derived only from a few experiments.The O_3 pollution in summer over Beijing is very complex,needing further study and validation.
With one-dimension photochemical model,the simulation is conducted on the diurnal variation of O_3,NO,NO_2,CO and SO_2 on 9 September 2001 in stable weather and the controlling factors for the diurnal change are explained.The preliminary analysis shows that the O_3 concentration is sensitive to non-methane hydrocarbon(NMHC).The increase or decrease of NMHC concentration results in the distinct variation of ozone concentration.The cause of NO,CO and SO_2 concentration increase from 20:00 to 23:00 on 9 September 2001 is the weak vertical diffusion and accumulated pollutants at the lower atmosphere at night.The producing and depleting mechanisms of O_3 are complex and the transportation is important for O_3 and its precursors.Though one-dimension model can reveal the main factors influencing O_3 concentration,the three-dimension model is needed to explain more phenomena.These conclusions are derived only from a few experiments.The O_3 pollution in summer over Beijing is very complex,needing further study and validation.
2006, 34(6):656-661.
Abstract:
Combining GPS(Global Position System) and the data logger system,mobile measurements were carried out under clear weather and light wind conditions to research the urban heat island effect in Beijing.The impacts of different surface covers on urban local climate and the distribution of meteorological elements are investigated.The results show that the urban building-concentrated areas with less water and less vegetation have higher air temperature and lower relative humidity compared with the rural area.The mobile measurements are a useful supplement to conventional observation,and the mobile measuring approach is an effective method for urban climatic observation.
Combining GPS(Global Position System) and the data logger system,mobile measurements were carried out under clear weather and light wind conditions to research the urban heat island effect in Beijing.The impacts of different surface covers on urban local climate and the distribution of meteorological elements are investigated.The results show that the urban building-concentrated areas with less water and less vegetation have higher air temperature and lower relative humidity compared with the rural area.The mobile measurements are a useful supplement to conventional observation,and the mobile measuring approach is an effective method for urban climatic observation.
2006, 34(6):662-666.
Abstract:
In order to understand the concentration characteristics of PM(Particulate Matter) in sandstorm season,PM concentrations were observed in the spring of 2002.The observational results show that the concentrations of PM were lower in the periods without sandstorms than those with sandstorms.During sandstorms,the air quality became very poor.The results also show that there are significant linear correlation between PM10 and TSP,PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations.The added contribution of sandstorm weather to the vari-sized PM concentrations is about 33% to 86%.
In order to understand the concentration characteristics of PM(Particulate Matter) in sandstorm season,PM concentrations were observed in the spring of 2002.The observational results show that the concentrations of PM were lower in the periods without sandstorms than those with sandstorms.During sandstorms,the air quality became very poor.The results also show that there are significant linear correlation between PM10 and TSP,PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations.The added contribution of sandstorm weather to the vari-sized PM concentrations is about 33% to 86%.
2006, 34(6):667-673.
Abstract:
The characteristics of cloud-to-ground(CG) lightning flashes around Chengdu is analyzed by means of three-year observational data from the XDD03A lightning location system.It is found that the majority of CG lightning flashes are positive with a mean intensity of 6045 A,slightly higher than that of negative flashes.The intensity of CG flashes is mostly below 12000 A.The daily variation of CG lightning flashes assumes a form of unimodal undulance,with the peak over 60 times from 18:00 to 21:00 and at 01:00 and the valley below 10 times from 10:00 to 13:00.Lightning flashes occur more frequently at night than in the daytime.The tendency of the daily variation of the positive CG lightning flashes is similar to that of total CG lightning flashes and so is that of the negative CG lightning flashes except some slight fluctuations.The tendency of the monthly variation of the number of the positive CG lightning flashes is similar to that of negative CG lightning flashes.Lightning flashes occur more frequently in June,July and August,while less frequently in April,May,September and October.Good correlation between monthly rainfall and corresponding monthly total CG flashes is found.The lightning density around Chengdu is relatively great,much higher in June,July,and August than in April,May,September,and October.
The characteristics of cloud-to-ground(CG) lightning flashes around Chengdu is analyzed by means of three-year observational data from the XDD03A lightning location system.It is found that the majority of CG lightning flashes are positive with a mean intensity of 6045 A,slightly higher than that of negative flashes.The intensity of CG flashes is mostly below 12000 A.The daily variation of CG lightning flashes assumes a form of unimodal undulance,with the peak over 60 times from 18:00 to 21:00 and at 01:00 and the valley below 10 times from 10:00 to 13:00.Lightning flashes occur more frequently at night than in the daytime.The tendency of the daily variation of the positive CG lightning flashes is similar to that of total CG lightning flashes and so is that of the negative CG lightning flashes except some slight fluctuations.The tendency of the monthly variation of the number of the positive CG lightning flashes is similar to that of negative CG lightning flashes.Lightning flashes occur more frequently in June,July and August,while less frequently in April,May,September and October.Good correlation between monthly rainfall and corresponding monthly total CG flashes is found.The lightning density around Chengdu is relatively great,much higher in June,July,and August than in April,May,September,and October.
2006, 34(6):674-678.
Abstract:
A statistic analysis is made based on a large amount of observations during typical heavy air pollution days from January 2002 to December 2004 in Shijiazhuang.The temporal and spatial distribution of typical heavy air pollution days,the corresponding characteristics of meteorological elements,and three favorable synoptic patterns are revealed.The results show that most of typical heavy air pollution days take place in the heating period and have continuity in the temporal distribution;on dusty pollution days,there are strong winds,low humidity and positive pressure variation,and on non-dusty pollution days,there are weak winds,high humidity and stable stratification(temperature inversion,high Richardson number,etc.);and a weather pattern with the highest occurrence probability of heavy pollution days,owing to the special topography of Shijiazhuang,is(identified.) Some useful hints for forecasting heavy pollution days are presented.
A statistic analysis is made based on a large amount of observations during typical heavy air pollution days from January 2002 to December 2004 in Shijiazhuang.The temporal and spatial distribution of typical heavy air pollution days,the corresponding characteristics of meteorological elements,and three favorable synoptic patterns are revealed.The results show that most of typical heavy air pollution days take place in the heating period and have continuity in the temporal distribution;on dusty pollution days,there are strong winds,low humidity and positive pressure variation,and on non-dusty pollution days,there are weak winds,high humidity and stable stratification(temperature inversion,high Richardson number,etc.);and a weather pattern with the highest occurrence probability of heavy pollution days,owing to the special topography of Shijiazhuang,is(identified.) Some useful hints for forecasting heavy pollution days are presented.
2006, 34(6):679-683.
Abstract:
Based on the lightning data from 2000 to 2003, the temporal and spatial characteristics of lightning in Guangzhou are analyzed. It is shown that lightning occurs frequently from April to October with quasi-bimodal daily variation, most frequently from afternoon to midnight. Lightning occurs the most frequently in the urban area, secondly in the northeast part of the city. The positive lightning center is located to the south of the urban area. The related circulation patterns and synoptic systems are also studied. The synoptic patterns of severe lightning can be divided into three categories and six types, which are affected by the westerly trough, under the control of the subtropical high or related to tropical systems, respectively. The disposition of each type varies in different seasons.
Based on the lightning data from 2000 to 2003, the temporal and spatial characteristics of lightning in Guangzhou are analyzed. It is shown that lightning occurs frequently from April to October with quasi-bimodal daily variation, most frequently from afternoon to midnight. Lightning occurs the most frequently in the urban area, secondly in the northeast part of the city. The positive lightning center is located to the south of the urban area. The related circulation patterns and synoptic systems are also studied. The synoptic patterns of severe lightning can be divided into three categories and six types, which are affected by the westerly trough, under the control of the subtropical high or related to tropical systems, respectively. The disposition of each type varies in different seasons.
2006, 34(6):684-687.
Abstract:
Based on the numerical prediction model of Euler acid deposition,the ANN(artificial neural network) model,the principal component analysis and the dynamic-statistic prediction method,the urban acid rain prediction model of Guangxi is established.The platform is set up according to the working procedure,combining forecast,Sybase database and network technique together.The prediction practice for more than one year indicates that the system performs stably and is highly automatic.
Based on the numerical prediction model of Euler acid deposition,the ANN(artificial neural network) model,the principal component analysis and the dynamic-statistic prediction method,the urban acid rain prediction model of Guangxi is established.The platform is set up according to the working procedure,combining forecast,Sybase database and network technique together.The prediction practice for more than one year indicates that the system performs stably and is highly automatic.
2006, 34(6):688-692.
Abstract:
Based on the day-to-day data from the Environmental Monitoring Station of Cangzhou from 1 June 2002 to 31 May 2004,the urban air quality and pollutants in Cangzhou are analyzed.The statistical results show: the air quality in Cangzhou is mostly fine and there are 236 polluted days in two years;the primary pollutants influencing the air quality in Cangzhou are PM10 and SO_2;air quality is closely relevant to seasons and meteorological factors,such as weather phenomena,pressure,winds and cloudiness.By comparing the prediction results of two air quality forecast systems that run every day in Cangzhou,it is founded that the CAPPS 1.0 model performed better than the statistical model.
Based on the day-to-day data from the Environmental Monitoring Station of Cangzhou from 1 June 2002 to 31 May 2004,the urban air quality and pollutants in Cangzhou are analyzed.The statistical results show: the air quality in Cangzhou is mostly fine and there are 236 polluted days in two years;the primary pollutants influencing the air quality in Cangzhou are PM10 and SO_2;air quality is closely relevant to seasons and meteorological factors,such as weather phenomena,pressure,winds and cloudiness.By comparing the prediction results of two air quality forecast systems that run every day in Cangzhou,it is founded that the CAPPS 1.0 model performed better than the statistical model.
2006, 34(6):693-697.
Abstract:
The climatic characteristics of high temperature in Liu'an are summarized systematically through the statistical analysis of observation data and synoptic charts in 40 years.The forecasting indexes are devised based on the numerical forecast products accordingly,and the high temperature forecasting method and the releasing procedures of pre-warning messages are presented.The application practice indicates that that the capability of high temperature warning is improved notably.
The climatic characteristics of high temperature in Liu'an are summarized systematically through the statistical analysis of observation data and synoptic charts in 40 years.The forecasting indexes are devised based on the numerical forecast products accordingly,and the high temperature forecasting method and the releasing procedures of pre-warning messages are presented.The application practice indicates that that the capability of high temperature warning is improved notably.
2006, 34(6):698-704.
Abstract:
Biometeorolocical forecasting is closely related to public weather forecasting.The ecological-dynamic basis of biometeorological forecasting is described on the basis of operational practice,applied researches,the related references and experts' experiences.The advancements,theories and methods,and research scope of biometeorological forecasting,as well as the relation with ecological dynamics,are reviewed.It is pointed out that the introduction of high-new technology into ecological dynamics is the foundation for the development of biometeorological forecasting from qualitative to quantitative forecasting and from single station to regional network.Some suggestions on the operationization and specialist training for biometeorological forecasting are presented.Discussion is also made on the prospects of biometeorological forecasting and its importance for the sustainable development of the national economy and the ecological environment.
Biometeorolocical forecasting is closely related to public weather forecasting.The ecological-dynamic basis of biometeorological forecasting is described on the basis of operational practice,applied researches,the related references and experts' experiences.The advancements,theories and methods,and research scope of biometeorological forecasting,as well as the relation with ecological dynamics,are reviewed.It is pointed out that the introduction of high-new technology into ecological dynamics is the foundation for the development of biometeorological forecasting from qualitative to quantitative forecasting and from single station to regional network.Some suggestions on the operationization and specialist training for biometeorological forecasting are presented.Discussion is also made on the prospects of biometeorological forecasting and its importance for the sustainable development of the national economy and the ecological environment.
2006, 34(6):705-710.
Abstract:
With the development of industrialization and urbanization, the concentrations and types of atmospheric aerosols increase rapidly. Aerosols influence the energy budget of the earth-atmosphere system directly by absorbing and scattering solar radiation, and indirectly by tors, such as clouds, ozone, etc., so to further affect cli changing the magnitude of other radiative forcing facmate. The major achievements in atmospheric aerosol research, especially in the aerosol radiative forcing effect and impacts of atmospheric aerosols on plants and agriculture , both at home and abroad, are summarized. The problems existing in monitoring methods and the model assessment of atmospheric aerosols are discussed.
With the development of industrialization and urbanization, the concentrations and types of atmospheric aerosols increase rapidly. Aerosols influence the energy budget of the earth-atmosphere system directly by absorbing and scattering solar radiation, and indirectly by tors, such as clouds, ozone, etc., so to further affect cli changing the magnitude of other radiative forcing facmate. The major achievements in atmospheric aerosol research, especially in the aerosol radiative forcing effect and impacts of atmospheric aerosols on plants and agriculture , both at home and abroad, are summarized. The problems existing in monitoring methods and the model assessment of atmospheric aerosols are discussed.
2006, 34(6):711-714.
Abstract:
In terms of the improved Kassam-Wageningen method,calculation is made of the effects of light,temperature,climate and soil on sweet potato productivity at 29 stations over Fujian Province.The results show that under the optimal water and fertilizer condition,the climate productivity and climate-soil productivity will increase by one third or more.According to the characteristics of food production in Fujian Province,some useful countermeasures for food security are put forward: increase the planting area of sweet potatoes;build the yield-stable croplands despite drought or excessive rain;improve soil fertility;limit the non-agricultural lands and the growth of population.
In terms of the improved Kassam-Wageningen method,calculation is made of the effects of light,temperature,climate and soil on sweet potato productivity at 29 stations over Fujian Province.The results show that under the optimal water and fertilizer condition,the climate productivity and climate-soil productivity will increase by one third or more.According to the characteristics of food production in Fujian Province,some useful countermeasures for food security are put forward: increase the planting area of sweet potatoes;build the yield-stable croplands despite drought or excessive rain;improve soil fertility;limit the non-agricultural lands and the growth of population.
2006, 34(6):715-718.
Abstract:
The influence of meteorological conditions on the occurrence and development of tobacco mosaic virus(TMV) in Northeast Fujian is analyzed.The results suggest that some meteorological factors such as temperature,moisture,rainfall and sunshine have remarkable effects on TMV occurrence and development;but the degree of the effects and the key influencing periods are different.The most effective factors are moisture and rainfall,then temperature,and the least is sunshine.Temperature plays a major role,and minimum temperature has the most important role at the beginning of TMV attack;the moisture and the rainfall play a key role and sunshine has an obvious negative role during the prevailing period.A mid-term forecast model of TMV occurrence is developed and some prevention suggestions are presented.
The influence of meteorological conditions on the occurrence and development of tobacco mosaic virus(TMV) in Northeast Fujian is analyzed.The results suggest that some meteorological factors such as temperature,moisture,rainfall and sunshine have remarkable effects on TMV occurrence and development;but the degree of the effects and the key influencing periods are different.The most effective factors are moisture and rainfall,then temperature,and the least is sunshine.Temperature plays a major role,and minimum temperature has the most important role at the beginning of TMV attack;the moisture and the rainfall play a key role and sunshine has an obvious negative role during the prevailing period.A mid-term forecast model of TMV occurrence is developed and some prevention suggestions are presented.
2006, 34(6):719-723.
Abstract:
The appropriate season on islands in Zhejiang is studied by means of the body-sensible index,wind index and comfortability index,respectively;and the concept of "comfortable frequency" is presented.The necessary revision is conducted on the comfortability index according to the features of island tourism.The results show that the revised comfortability index,which combines seven meteorological factors(air pressure,sunshine,precipitation,temperature,humidity,wind and visibility),can evaluate synthetically the reaction of human bodies to weather.It can be used to appraise more completely the economic development value of a scenic spot and the length of the appropriate season for tourism.The longer the appropriate season is,the higher the development value of the scenic spot is.
The appropriate season on islands in Zhejiang is studied by means of the body-sensible index,wind index and comfortability index,respectively;and the concept of "comfortable frequency" is presented.The necessary revision is conducted on the comfortability index according to the features of island tourism.The results show that the revised comfortability index,which combines seven meteorological factors(air pressure,sunshine,precipitation,temperature,humidity,wind and visibility),can evaluate synthetically the reaction of human bodies to weather.It can be used to appraise more completely the economic development value of a scenic spot and the length of the appropriate season for tourism.The longer the appropriate season is,the higher the development value of the scenic spot is.
2006, 34(6):724-727.
Abstract:
The analysis of daily total pollen number and allergic pollen number in ten years in Beijing shows that the daily pollen number in Beijing in Summer and Autumn displays a slow increase trend before and around the Beginning of Autumn(13th solar term) and quick increase after;the daily total pollen number reaches its peak value around the End of Heat(14th solar term).Using statistical method,the short-term forecast models of the daily total pollen number and the allergic pollen number for various weather patterns are devised,and the corresponding software operating platform is developed.The 24-hour forecast products of the total pollen number and the diurnal allergic pollen number in Beijing can be made.
The analysis of daily total pollen number and allergic pollen number in ten years in Beijing shows that the daily pollen number in Beijing in Summer and Autumn displays a slow increase trend before and around the Beginning of Autumn(13th solar term) and quick increase after;the daily total pollen number reaches its peak value around the End of Heat(14th solar term).Using statistical method,the short-term forecast models of the daily total pollen number and the allergic pollen number for various weather patterns are devised,and the corresponding software operating platform is developed.The 24-hour forecast products of the total pollen number and the diurnal allergic pollen number in Beijing can be made.
2006, 34(6):728-730.
Abstract:
The correlation between rapid temperature decrease and common cold morbidity and the relation between the occurrence of seasonal extreme weather events and the morbidity of common colds in Kunming are analyzed by means of the statistical method. The influencing factors of common cold occurrence in winter are identified through analyzing the associated weather systems over Kunming. Results show that there exists close relation in the occurrence of weather extreme events and the morbidity of common colds.
The correlation between rapid temperature decrease and common cold morbidity and the relation between the occurrence of seasonal extreme weather events and the morbidity of common colds in Kunming are analyzed by means of the statistical method. The influencing factors of common cold occurrence in winter are identified through analyzing the associated weather systems over Kunming. Results show that there exists close relation in the occurrence of weather extreme events and the morbidity of common colds.
2006, 34(6):731-734.
Abstract:
Water resources are one of primary environmental factors influencing sustainable development. To study water resource vulnerability and the impact of climate change on water resource vulnerability is of great significance to the national economy sustainable development in China and has been one of the focal issues in the environmental research at present and even in the future. The conceptions, assessment index systems, research methods, and major progresses in the researches on water resource vulnerability and suitable countermeasures to decrease water resource vulnerability are systematically summarized. Some suggestions are given on the future research focuses in the area of water resource vulnerability, the existing index system perfecting, the improvement of the unity and comparability of vulnerability maps, and the application of high and new technology to water resource vulnerability research.
Water resources are one of primary environmental factors influencing sustainable development. To study water resource vulnerability and the impact of climate change on water resource vulnerability is of great significance to the national economy sustainable development in China and has been one of the focal issues in the environmental research at present and even in the future. The conceptions, assessment index systems, research methods, and major progresses in the researches on water resource vulnerability and suitable countermeasures to decrease water resource vulnerability are systematically summarized. Some suggestions are given on the future research focuses in the area of water resource vulnerability, the existing index system perfecting, the improvement of the unity and comparability of vulnerability maps, and the application of high and new technology to water resource vulnerability research.
2006, 34(6):735-740.
Abstract:
Based on the study of early-warning techniques of disaster weather such as strong wind, heavy mist, sea waves, etc., a meteorological service system for various sea area is established. For the sake of the economic development of the coastal area of Jiangsu Province, some new services for voyage, salt industry, harbor construction, beach construction, aquatic production, seashore tourism, etc. are developed. The main technique methods of the system are introduced.
Based on the study of early-warning techniques of disaster weather such as strong wind, heavy mist, sea waves, etc., a meteorological service system for various sea area is established. For the sake of the economic development of the coastal area of Jiangsu Province, some new services for voyage, salt industry, harbor construction, beach construction, aquatic production, seashore tourism, etc. are developed. The main technique methods of the system are introduced.
2006, 34(6):741-744.
Abstract:
A method with forecast service experiences and mathematical-statlstic computation combined is introduced, which can be used to calculate objectively forecast service economic efficiency. The reduced part of the loss after taking countermeasures according to forecast service is considered as the direct economic efficiency of the forecast service. The indexes of various weather risks are determined through user investigation and analytical experiments, and the corresponding computation models are established by means of the statistical method. The method has advantages of being simple, less errors, and easy to use. The practical application of nearly three years proves that it is applicable.
A method with forecast service experiences and mathematical-statlstic computation combined is introduced, which can be used to calculate objectively forecast service economic efficiency. The reduced part of the loss after taking countermeasures according to forecast service is considered as the direct economic efficiency of the forecast service. The indexes of various weather risks are determined through user investigation and analytical experiments, and the corresponding computation models are established by means of the statistical method. The method has advantages of being simple, less errors, and easy to use. The practical application of nearly three years proves that it is applicable.
20 PP-ES Method for Predicting Hazard Grades of Meteorological-Geological Disasters in Yunnan Province
2006, 34(6):745-749.
Abstract:
According to the relationship model between meteorological-geological disasters and prophase and antecedent precipitation,the fuzzy possibility of hazard grades for meteorological-geological disasters(MGD) is described.The PP (Perfect Prediction) principles and the certainty-factor method in ES(expert systems) are used to carry out the uncertainty-inference of MGD prediction,in order to establish the ES predicting model of meteorological-geological disasters.The model has been proved satisfactory in the flood season of 2004,predicted all the major meteorological geological disasters.The results indicate that it is feasible and effective to establish prediction model by dividing the precipitation(prediction factor) into two(actual and predicted) according to the PP principles and by using the expert-system predicting method for such low probability events as meteorological geological disasters.
According to the relationship model between meteorological-geological disasters and prophase and antecedent precipitation,the fuzzy possibility of hazard grades for meteorological-geological disasters(MGD) is described.The PP (Perfect Prediction) principles and the certainty-factor method in ES(expert systems) are used to carry out the uncertainty-inference of MGD prediction,in order to establish the ES predicting model of meteorological-geological disasters.The model has been proved satisfactory in the flood season of 2004,predicted all the major meteorological geological disasters.The results indicate that it is feasible and effective to establish prediction model by dividing the precipitation(prediction factor) into two(actual and predicted) according to the PP principles and by using the expert-system predicting method for such low probability events as meteorological geological disasters.
2006, 34(6):750-753.
Abstract:
Based on geological disaster data and the corresponding precipitation data of Chengde, the regularities of geological disasters in Chengde are revealed, and the correlation between geological disasters and precipitation is found. The results show that local strong precipitation is the major triggering factor of geological disasters. Because of different geological structures in different regions, the study divided geological disasters in Chengde into three categories according to the regionalization of geological disasters, the precipitation intensity of the same day, and previous precipitation in Chengde, and identified three kinds of atmospheric circulation patterns favorable to the occurrence of geological disasters. The graded meteorological forecasting and pre-warning system of geological disasters is established accordingly and put into operation in 2005. The results proved encouraging.
Based on geological disaster data and the corresponding precipitation data of Chengde, the regularities of geological disasters in Chengde are revealed, and the correlation between geological disasters and precipitation is found. The results show that local strong precipitation is the major triggering factor of geological disasters. Because of different geological structures in different regions, the study divided geological disasters in Chengde into three categories according to the regionalization of geological disasters, the precipitation intensity of the same day, and previous precipitation in Chengde, and identified three kinds of atmospheric circulation patterns favorable to the occurrence of geological disasters. The graded meteorological forecasting and pre-warning system of geological disasters is established accordingly and put into operation in 2005. The results proved encouraging.
2006, 34(6):754-757.
Abstract:
Based on the field survey and the related analysis, using the fuzzy mathematical method, the natural hazard risk of debris flows is defined, and the rainfall index for debris flows in summer as a piecewise function, is devised. A debris flow early warning model based on comprehensive judgement is established. Identification and prediction experiments are made on the hazard risks of five debris flows with the model for precipitation of various levels. Taking the debris flow happened to the north of Jiegu, Qinghai Province on 29 July 2003 as an example, a preliminary validation is conducted
Based on the field survey and the related analysis, using the fuzzy mathematical method, the natural hazard risk of debris flows is defined, and the rainfall index for debris flows in summer as a piecewise function, is devised. A debris flow early warning model based on comprehensive judgement is established. Identification and prediction experiments are made on the hazard risks of five debris flows with the model for precipitation of various levels. Taking the debris flow happened to the north of Jiegu, Qinghai Province on 29 July 2003 as an example, a preliminary validation is conducted
2006, 34(6):758-762.
Abstract:
The relationship between temperature in midsummer and electrical loads in Zhejiang Province is analyzed by means of REOF,regression analysis,correlation analysis,etc.The evaluation model of electricity loads in midsummer is built.The cooling degree days are used as the index to estimate energy consumption for cooling in midsummer.The spatial distribution and the long-term variation features of cooling energy consumption in Zhejiang Province are analyzed.The main results are:(1) There is distinct positive correlation between daily mean temperature and daily mean power load and between daily maximum temperature and daily maximum(power) load.The evaluation equations built on the basis of this theory fit the real electrical loads for cooling well.(2) The cooling energy consumption(cooling degree days) in Zhejiang Province in midsummer fluctuated greatly in the last 50 years.The cooling degree days show a slight downtrend in the northern Zhejiang Province,an obvious downtrend in the southwestern part,and an obvious uptrend in the coastal area.
The relationship between temperature in midsummer and electrical loads in Zhejiang Province is analyzed by means of REOF,regression analysis,correlation analysis,etc.The evaluation model of electricity loads in midsummer is built.The cooling degree days are used as the index to estimate energy consumption for cooling in midsummer.The spatial distribution and the long-term variation features of cooling energy consumption in Zhejiang Province are analyzed.The main results are:(1) There is distinct positive correlation between daily mean temperature and daily mean power load and between daily maximum temperature and daily maximum(power) load.The evaluation equations built on the basis of this theory fit the real electrical loads for cooling well.(2) The cooling energy consumption(cooling degree days) in Zhejiang Province in midsummer fluctuated greatly in the last 50 years.The cooling degree days show a slight downtrend in the northern Zhejiang Province,an obvious downtrend in the southwestern part,and an obvious uptrend in the coastal area.
2006, 34(6):763-768.
Abstract:
The wind resources of the Jimo wind farm are analyzed and the representative years are determined by means of the 30-year wind data from Jimo Weather Station and the wind measurements from a meteorological observation tower. Tests and emendation are conducted according to the related technical stipulations. Analyses and computation are made of the wind energy parameters measured at the tower such as the daily and annual variation of wind speed, the monthly and annual variation of wind direction frequencies, the mean wind and wind power density, effective hours of wind speed, etc., as well as the power output and its variation regularities with height for various wind turbines. It is concluded that it is worthy of development only when the winds reach Grade 3 on the Beaufort scale for a wind farm.
The wind resources of the Jimo wind farm are analyzed and the representative years are determined by means of the 30-year wind data from Jimo Weather Station and the wind measurements from a meteorological observation tower. Tests and emendation are conducted according to the related technical stipulations. Analyses and computation are made of the wind energy parameters measured at the tower such as the daily and annual variation of wind speed, the monthly and annual variation of wind direction frequencies, the mean wind and wind power density, effective hours of wind speed, etc., as well as the power output and its variation regularities with height for various wind turbines. It is concluded that it is worthy of development only when the winds reach Grade 3 on the Beaufort scale for a wind farm.
2006, 34(6):769-773.
Abstract:
A ground observation station was established at the Yuanyang Lake Power Plant in Ningxia Province,and the temperature,wind direction,wind speed and 60-m gradient observation data were obtained.The synchronous observation for one year was also conducted at a nearby weather station(Lingwu Station).The comparison analysis reveals the climatic characteristics of the power plant.By means of the observed data from the Lingwu weather station from 1971 to 2000 and the correlative analysis method,the adjustment is made and the characteristics of the year-to-year meteorological elements at the power plant year after year are obtained.The results show that wind direction and velocity at the power plant are obviously different from those at the Lingwu weather station.The analysis results are mainly used in the installation and safe operation of the air-cooling system of local thermoelectric power stations.
A ground observation station was established at the Yuanyang Lake Power Plant in Ningxia Province,and the temperature,wind direction,wind speed and 60-m gradient observation data were obtained.The synchronous observation for one year was also conducted at a nearby weather station(Lingwu Station).The comparison analysis reveals the climatic characteristics of the power plant.By means of the observed data from the Lingwu weather station from 1971 to 2000 and the correlative analysis method,the adjustment is made and the characteristics of the year-to-year meteorological elements at the power plant year after year are obtained.The results show that wind direction and velocity at the power plant are obviously different from those at the Lingwu weather station.The analysis results are mainly used in the installation and safe operation of the air-cooling system of local thermoelectric power stations.
2006, 34(6):774-777.
Abstract:
An analysis is made of the meteorological elements from May to September, 1999 to 2002 in Fuzhou, such as maximum, minimum and average temperature, as well as average relative humidity, etc. It is found that the meteorological elements affect directly electricity load. The meteorological electricity load, the part of electricity load variation caused by meteorological element variation, is derived from the day-to-day electricity load data. A series of correlative indexes between electricity load and meteorological elements are computed and a meteorological electricity prediction model is established by using the regression method, which could predict meteorological electricity loads. The predicted results have passed the statistical test, and meteorological electricity load standards are established. The back-substitution check on the day-to-day meteorological electricity load grades in summer from 2003 to 2005 in Fuzhou indicates that the model performs well.
An analysis is made of the meteorological elements from May to September, 1999 to 2002 in Fuzhou, such as maximum, minimum and average temperature, as well as average relative humidity, etc. It is found that the meteorological elements affect directly electricity load. The meteorological electricity load, the part of electricity load variation caused by meteorological element variation, is derived from the day-to-day electricity load data. A series of correlative indexes between electricity load and meteorological elements are computed and a meteorological electricity prediction model is established by using the regression method, which could predict meteorological electricity loads. The predicted results have passed the statistical test, and meteorological electricity load standards are established. The back-substitution check on the day-to-day meteorological electricity load grades in summer from 2003 to 2005 in Fuzhou indicates that the model performs well.
2006, 34(6):778-782.
Abstract:
Based on the related data from 1999 to 2003 in Lishui, the correlation analysis of traffic accidents and weather conditions is conducted. The results show that traffic accidents are related to sunshine, rainfall, high temperature, temperature difference, visibility, humidity, snowfall, and wind speed. The traffic accidents occur more likely on high temperature days in summer and on low temperature days in winter, as well as on rainy, snowy, foggy days. The traffic accidents occur more frequently in fine days than cloudy days both in summer and winter, and vice versa in autumn. There are less relatively traffic accidents while the land is frozen up and covered with snow.
Based on the related data from 1999 to 2003 in Lishui, the correlation analysis of traffic accidents and weather conditions is conducted. The results show that traffic accidents are related to sunshine, rainfall, high temperature, temperature difference, visibility, humidity, snowfall, and wind speed. The traffic accidents occur more likely on high temperature days in summer and on low temperature days in winter, as well as on rainy, snowy, foggy days. The traffic accidents occur more frequently in fine days than cloudy days both in summer and winter, and vice versa in autumn. There are less relatively traffic accidents while the land is frozen up and covered with snow.
2006, 34(6):783-787.
Abstract:
使用2003年3月至2005年8月南岭山地京珠高速公路粤境北段云岩路段3套自动气象站的逐分钟路面温度、地温、气温、湿度、风向、风速等气象资料，分析研究了南岭山地高速公路的路面温度特征及其与天气状况、气温、风速等气象条件的关系，并讨论了地形对南岭山地高速公路路面温度的影响。研究结果表明，南岭山地高速公路晴天和多云时的路面温度日变化明显，与辐射过程密切相关。路温与气温、地温的差异在晴天午后最为明显。晴天时路温、地温、气温的年变化趋势比较一致，路温与地温之间保持着明显的温差；多云天气时路温与地温的差值明显缩小，阴天时路温与地温的差值非常小。地形对路面温度有明显影响，高海拔地区路面温度相对较低，南岭北坡路面温度明显高于南坡，与局地小地形有关。高温过程时路面温度最高接近60℃，地温也超过50℃，持续高温对行车安全、路面和路基结构均有很大威胁。
使用2003年3月至2005年8月南岭山地京珠高速公路粤境北段云岩路段3套自动气象站的逐分钟路面温度、地温、气温、湿度、风向、风速等气象资料，分析研究了南岭山地高速公路的路面温度特征及其与天气状况、气温、风速等气象条件的关系，并讨论了地形对南岭山地高速公路路面温度的影响。研究结果表明，南岭山地高速公路晴天和多云时的路面温度日变化明显，与辐射过程密切相关。路温与气温、地温的差异在晴天午后最为明显。晴天时路温、地温、气温的年变化趋势比较一致，路温与地温之间保持着明显的温差；多云天气时路温与地温的差值明显缩小，阴天时路温与地温的差值非常小。地形对路面温度有明显影响，高海拔地区路面温度相对较低，南岭北坡路面温度明显高于南坡，与局地小地形有关。高温过程时路面温度最高接近60℃，地温也超过50℃，持续高温对行车安全、路面和路基结构均有很大威胁。
2006, 34(6):788-791.
Abstract:
The antiskid performance of highways was tested both in the laboratory and on the higgway, tne relationship between highway antiskid performance and temperature, as well as the state of the pavements, is studied. The results indicate that the antiskid performance of the pavements varies with the changing temperature or state of the pavements; there is a notable negative effect on antiskid performance at low temperature and in ice and snow weather in winter; the influence of meteorological conditions is related to the standard antiskid performance of highways.
The antiskid performance of highways was tested both in the laboratory and on the higgway, tne relationship between highway antiskid performance and temperature, as well as the state of the pavements, is studied. The results indicate that the antiskid performance of the pavements varies with the changing temperature or state of the pavements; there is a notable negative effect on antiskid performance at low temperature and in ice and snow weather in winter; the influence of meteorological conditions is related to the standard antiskid performance of highways.
2006, 34(6):792-795.
Abstract:
The fiercely developed coastal low that appears frequently along the South African coast often brings about abnormal weather.The wind direction turn from northeast to southwest and the winds and waves become very intricate.This abnormal winds and waves have a great influence on vessel sailing.An analysis is made of the abnormal winds and waves and an meteorological-routing example is given.Some suggestions are presented for vessels sailing in this sea area: keep away as far as possible from this abnormal winds and waves;be careful of the variation of the pressure and wind fields over the surrounding area;choose the best refuge harbor according to the actual situation once encountered bad weather and sea conditions.
The fiercely developed coastal low that appears frequently along the South African coast often brings about abnormal weather.The wind direction turn from northeast to southwest and the winds and waves become very intricate.This abnormal winds and waves have a great influence on vessel sailing.An analysis is made of the abnormal winds and waves and an meteorological-routing example is given.Some suggestions are presented for vessels sailing in this sea area: keep away as far as possible from this abnormal winds and waves;be careful of the variation of the pressure and wind fields over the surrounding area;choose the best refuge harbor according to the actual situation once encountered bad weather and sea conditions.
2006, 34(6):796-798.
Abstract:
An analysis is made of 90 major accidents occurred from 1979 to 1997 in Datong coal mines of Shanxi Province,and it is found that gas accidents occur most frequently(33% of total accidents) and result in heavy damages.The correlation between meteorological factors(temperature,air pressure)and gas concentrations is studied through statistical calculation on a 10-day base.The gas concentration prediction model and the day-to-day graded gas concentration prediction model are established,and the trial application indicates that the models can be used to predict well the tendency of gas concentration in coal mines,so to serve the safety management of coal mine production.
An analysis is made of 90 major accidents occurred from 1979 to 1997 in Datong coal mines of Shanxi Province,and it is found that gas accidents occur most frequently(33% of total accidents) and result in heavy damages.The correlation between meteorological factors(temperature,air pressure)and gas concentrations is studied through statistical calculation on a 10-day base.The gas concentration prediction model and the day-to-day graded gas concentration prediction model are established,and the trial application indicates that the models can be used to predict well the tendency of gas concentration in coal mines,so to serve the safety management of coal mine production.
External LinksChina Meteorological AdministrationCMA Meteorological Observation CentreChinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing Meteorological ServiceNational Satellite Meteorological Center
You are thevisitors
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.