Volume 35,Issue 2,2007 Table of Contents
2007, 35(2):161-165.
Abstract:
Several kinds of numerical forecast products are available operationally at the National Meteorological Center (NMC) of China. It is necessary to apply the consensus method to improve the efficiency of using these objective and subjective data. The consensus methods for using certain forecast products to forecast the tracks and intensities of tropical cyclones are experimented on the cyclones occurred over the western North Pacific and South China Sea in 2004. Three methods are used to build the consensus forecast equations respectively. The objective and quantitative verification results show that the forecast precision could be improved observably with the consensus method. This method can help forecasters make more accurate movement and intensity predictions of tropical cyclones.
Several kinds of numerical forecast products are available operationally at the National Meteorological Center (NMC) of China. It is necessary to apply the consensus method to improve the efficiency of using these objective and subjective data. The consensus methods for using certain forecast products to forecast the tracks and intensities of tropical cyclones are experimented on the cyclones occurred over the western North Pacific and South China Sea in 2004. Three methods are used to build the consensus forecast equations respectively. The objective and quantitative verification results show that the forecast precision could be improved observably with the consensus method. This method can help forecasters make more accurate movement and intensity predictions of tropical cyclones.
2007, 35(2):166-170.
Abstract:
A fine forecasting system was developed for provincial/prefecturallevel meteorological offices and military weather forecasting agencies in China by adopting the advanced mesoscale models and operational platform, and assembling the software of the parallel computing and visualizing tools. The accuracy of the 24hour fineorrainy forecast is up to over 80% and the torrential rain forecast is quite helpful. The system was also used to forecast sea waves with the results improved obviously. The system is well suitable for the operational application at provincial/prefecturallevel meteorological offices and the localization of forecasting models in either economical or forecast quality aspect.
A fine forecasting system was developed for provincial/prefecturallevel meteorological offices and military weather forecasting agencies in China by adopting the advanced mesoscale models and operational platform, and assembling the software of the parallel computing and visualizing tools. The accuracy of the 24hour fineorrainy forecast is up to over 80% and the torrential rain forecast is quite helpful. The system was also used to forecast sea waves with the results improved obviously. The system is well suitable for the operational application at provincial/prefecturallevel meteorological offices and the localization of forecasting models in either economical or forecast quality aspect.
2007, 35(2):171-174.
Abstract:
According to the physical definition of Showalter Index (SI), four Calculation Schemes are proposed. Scheme A does not consider water vapor latent heat, resulting in large calculation errors. Although Scheme B considers the condensation latent heat, the curvature of wet adiabat is not considered in the computational method. Scheme B is superior to Scheme A, but the errors are still large. Scheme C not only considers the condensation latent heat, but also improves the computational method, considering the curvature of wet adiabat and the errors resulted from the derived temperature directly from pressure, with the result being superior to both Scheme A and B plan. Scheme D obtains the temperature of ascending air parcels through transformation by the pseudoadiabatic equation, and then figures out SI index. It is more precise, but its calculation is very complex, difficult to be used widely. Therefore Scheme C is preferred, can be put to operational use.
According to the physical definition of Showalter Index (SI), four Calculation Schemes are proposed. Scheme A does not consider water vapor latent heat, resulting in large calculation errors. Although Scheme B considers the condensation latent heat, the curvature of wet adiabat is not considered in the computational method. Scheme B is superior to Scheme A, but the errors are still large. Scheme C not only considers the condensation latent heat, but also improves the computational method, considering the curvature of wet adiabat and the errors resulted from the derived temperature directly from pressure, with the result being superior to both Scheme A and B plan. Scheme D obtains the temperature of ascending air parcels through transformation by the pseudoadiabatic equation, and then figures out SI index. It is more precise, but its calculation is very complex, difficult to be used widely. Therefore Scheme C is preferred, can be put to operational use.
2007, 35(2):175-179.
Abstract:
The Typhoon Matsa affected Dalian on 8 August 2005. During the process, heavy or severe rainfall occurred in Dalian, and strong winds and high waves were observed over the sea area around Dalian with the wind force being force 7 to force 8, even up to force 11 instantaneously, which came across the astronomical tide peak, resulting the waves of more than 4 meter high and the storm surge over the Bohai Sea and the northern Huanghai Sea. By means of MM5 model and the third generation of shallowwater wave model SWAN, the simulation is conducted on the moving track of Typhoon Matsa and the winds and waves caused by Matsa. The simulated result is in accordance with the actual condition basically.
The Typhoon Matsa affected Dalian on 8 August 2005. During the process, heavy or severe rainfall occurred in Dalian, and strong winds and high waves were observed over the sea area around Dalian with the wind force being force 7 to force 8, even up to force 11 instantaneously, which came across the astronomical tide peak, resulting the waves of more than 4 meter high and the storm surge over the Bohai Sea and the northern Huanghai Sea. By means of MM5 model and the third generation of shallowwater wave model SWAN, the simulation is conducted on the moving track of Typhoon Matsa and the winds and waves caused by Matsa. The simulated result is in accordance with the actual condition basically.
2007, 35(2):180-186.
Abstract:
GRAPES and MM5 models are used to simulate and predict the heavy rainfall process in Chongqing in September 2004. The result shows that both models can predict the rainfall development successfully, but there are certain differences between observation and simulated center location and magnitude of rainfall. The rainfall spatial distribution simulated by GRAPES is better than that simulated by MM5. However, the maximum values of the precipitation center are much less than the results of MM5. It is noted that the vertical velocity simulated by MM5 is higher than that simulated by GRAPES through analysis of the general circulation, which may cause the difference in the rainfall magnitude. Through the preliminary diagnostic analysis of simulation, it can be found that the simulation for conditional instability has impact on the spatial distribution prediction for both models.
GRAPES and MM5 models are used to simulate and predict the heavy rainfall process in Chongqing in September 2004. The result shows that both models can predict the rainfall development successfully, but there are certain differences between observation and simulated center location and magnitude of rainfall. The rainfall spatial distribution simulated by GRAPES is better than that simulated by MM5. However, the maximum values of the precipitation center are much less than the results of MM5. It is noted that the vertical velocity simulated by MM5 is higher than that simulated by GRAPES through analysis of the general circulation, which may cause the difference in the rainfall magnitude. Through the preliminary diagnostic analysis of simulation, it can be found that the simulation for conditional instability has impact on the spatial distribution prediction for both models.
2007, 35(2):187-190.
Abstract:
EOF analysis of accumulated temperature of 20 stations over Ningxia shows that the accumulated temperature and growth season increase with the global warming in Ningxia. The greaterthan0 ℃ and greaterthan5 ℃ accumulated temperatures have a very similar variation trend: increasing from 1997 to 2004. The greaterthan0 ℃ accumulated temperature is smaller before the middle 1980s and greater afterwards. The greaterthan5 ℃ accumulated temperature curve has a break in the middle 1990s, smaller before and greater after. The greaterthan10 ℃ accumulated temperature is greater or smaller than normal in the whole region in 60.1% years and has the opposite variation trend in the northern and southern parts with the boundary from Zhongning to Yanchi in 31.6％ years. The growing season shows the clear interdecadal variation trend with an increasing rate of 3.8 days per 10 years, especially the average of the first four years of the 21st century is 14.9 days more than that in the 1960s.
EOF analysis of accumulated temperature of 20 stations over Ningxia shows that the accumulated temperature and growth season increase with the global warming in Ningxia. The greaterthan0 ℃ and greaterthan5 ℃ accumulated temperatures have a very similar variation trend: increasing from 1997 to 2004. The greaterthan0 ℃ accumulated temperature is smaller before the middle 1980s and greater afterwards. The greaterthan5 ℃ accumulated temperature curve has a break in the middle 1990s, smaller before and greater after. The greaterthan10 ℃ accumulated temperature is greater or smaller than normal in the whole region in 60.1% years and has the opposite variation trend in the northern and southern parts with the boundary from Zhongning to Yanchi in 31.6％ years. The growing season shows the clear interdecadal variation trend with an increasing rate of 3.8 days per 10 years, especially the average of the first four years of the 21st century is 14.9 days more than that in the 1960s.
2007, 35(2):191-197.
Abstract:
The synopticclimatic characteristics and the influential system of hightemperature weather are studied through the analysis of hightemperature processes from 1954 to 2005. The features of the hightemperature distribution under different weather systems are also analyzed and the forecasting procedures for hightemperature weather are designed. It is proved that the number of hightemp erature days has an increasing tendency; the subtropical high pressure is a very important weather system inducing the hightemperature weather in Shenzhen; the peripheral sinking air around a tropical cyclone is mainly responsible for the occurrence of the hightemperature weather in Shenzhen; the spatial distribution of high temperature has clearly geographical characteristics with the decreasing temperature from the north to the south, and the hightemperature areas in Shenzhen have obvious differences under different weather systems.
The synopticclimatic characteristics and the influential system of hightemperature weather are studied through the analysis of hightemperature processes from 1954 to 2005. The features of the hightemperature distribution under different weather systems are also analyzed and the forecasting procedures for hightemperature weather are designed. It is proved that the number of hightemp erature days has an increasing tendency; the subtropical high pressure is a very important weather system inducing the hightemperature weather in Shenzhen; the peripheral sinking air around a tropical cyclone is mainly responsible for the occurrence of the hightemperature weather in Shenzhen; the spatial distribution of high temperature has clearly geographical characteristics with the decreasing temperature from the north to the south, and the hightemperature areas in Shenzhen have obvious differences under different weather systems.
2007, 35(2):198-203.
Abstract:
The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of winter temperature over North China and the spatial distribution features of atmospheric general circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) are studied by using the monthly mean temperature of 160 stations over China from 1951 to 2003, the global NCEP/NCAR analyzed data, and the SST data from the climate diagnostic center of NOAA, through such analysis methods as EOF, linear tendency variation, MK examination, correlation, and t test. The results indicate: (1) the winter temperature over North China had a unanimous spatial variation trend, greater than normal or less than normal unanimously, with the cold years being in the period of 1951 to 1987 and the warm years in the period of 1987 to 2003; (2) there were differences in atmospheric general circulation patterns between cold and warm years, and polar vortex, with the highpressure ridge around Ural Mountains, the East Asian trough, and the Mongolian high pressure being important influence factors; (3) there was good relationship between winter temperature of North China and SST along the offshore of China.
The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of winter temperature over North China and the spatial distribution features of atmospheric general circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) are studied by using the monthly mean temperature of 160 stations over China from 1951 to 2003, the global NCEP/NCAR analyzed data, and the SST data from the climate diagnostic center of NOAA, through such analysis methods as EOF, linear tendency variation, MK examination, correlation, and t test. The results indicate: (1) the winter temperature over North China had a unanimous spatial variation trend, greater than normal or less than normal unanimously, with the cold years being in the period of 1951 to 1987 and the warm years in the period of 1987 to 2003; (2) there were differences in atmospheric general circulation patterns between cold and warm years, and polar vortex, with the highpressure ridge around Ural Mountains, the East Asian trough, and the Mongolian high pressure being important influence factors; (3) there was good relationship between winter temperature of North China and SST along the offshore of China.
2007, 35(2):204-208.
Abstract:
The tracing observation of hail clouds around the Changjiang River and Huaihe Valley was conducted by using CINRAD/CC radar at Maanshan. The atmosphere stability and convection available potential energy (CAPE) of the hail clouds are analyzed by means of CINRAD/CC data and the atmosphere stratification thermodynamic structure data. The results indicate that in the hail event there existed inflow gap and threebody scatter spike (TBSS) on the PPI, strong echo pendency and limitary weak echo region (WER) on the vertical crosssection. The analysis of meteorological data such as storm tracking information (STI), vertical integrated liquid(VIL), and mesocyclones verifys that the maximum diameter of the hailstones is about 50 mm.
The tracing observation of hail clouds around the Changjiang River and Huaihe Valley was conducted by using CINRAD/CC radar at Maanshan. The atmosphere stability and convection available potential energy (CAPE) of the hail clouds are analyzed by means of CINRAD/CC data and the atmosphere stratification thermodynamic structure data. The results indicate that in the hail event there existed inflow gap and threebody scatter spike (TBSS) on the PPI, strong echo pendency and limitary weak echo region (WER) on the vertical crosssection. The analysis of meteorological data such as storm tracking information (STI), vertical integrated liquid(VIL), and mesocyclones verifys that the maximum diameter of the hailstones is about 50 mm.
2007, 35(2):209-212.
Abstract:
The cloud top temperature data （TBB） and radar data from Hefei, Wuhan and Changsha are used to estimate the precipitation of a rainstorm event occurred on 8 July 2003. The result shows that the joint estimation method can describe this event well; the satellite data makes up the lack of radar data on space distribution; but the satellite estimation underrates the intensity of extraordinary heavy rainfall (daily precipitation greater than 200 mm) while overrates that of moderate intensity rainfall. When the radar data are combined with satellite data, the estimation result can express well the mesoscale structure features of the rainstorm cloud cluster, and the estimated precipitation field can reveal the spacetime distribution features of the severe ainfall event.
The cloud top temperature data （TBB） and radar data from Hefei, Wuhan and Changsha are used to estimate the precipitation of a rainstorm event occurred on 8 July 2003. The result shows that the joint estimation method can describe this event well; the satellite data makes up the lack of radar data on space distribution; but the satellite estimation underrates the intensity of extraordinary heavy rainfall (daily precipitation greater than 200 mm) while overrates that of moderate intensity rainfall. When the radar data are combined with satellite data, the estimation result can express well the mesoscale structure features of the rainstorm cloud cluster, and the estimated precipitation field can reveal the spacetime distribution features of the severe ainfall event.
2007, 35(2):213-216.
Abstract:
MICAPS (Meteorological Information Combine Analysis and Process System), CIMSS (Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite St udies) and satellite data are used to analyze the rapid increase in Typhoon Khanun (0515) intensity before landfalling. The results show that the heat flux divergence caused by the movement of the upper trough, the increasing southeast air flow and the deceasing vertical wind shear are the main reasons for the rapid increase in Typhoon Khanun intensity before landfalling.
MICAPS (Meteorological Information Combine Analysis and Process System), CIMSS (Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite St udies) and satellite data are used to analyze the rapid increase in Typhoon Khanun (0515) intensity before landfalling. The results show that the heat flux divergence caused by the movement of the upper trough, the increasing southeast air flow and the deceasing vertical wind shear are the main reasons for the rapid increase in Typhoon Khanun intensity before landfalling.
2007, 35(2):217-221.
Abstract:
A squall happened on 23 July 2004 in North China is analyzed on the basis of conventional meteorological observation data, as well as cloud, automatic weather station and Doppler radar data. It is found that the squall took place in the instability area near the northwest of the subtropical high, and was caused by a mesoscale convective system (MCS). A surface cold front, the southward moving of the subtropical high, and the upperlevel forward trough made the MCS move southeastward and enforced into a squall. The low and middlelevel moisture flux convergence in North China provided plenty of water vapor for the occurrence of strong convection. The lowlevel jet at 850 hPa and 700 hPa brought warm and moist southwest air to North China and intensified the unstable stratification. The strong wind shear near the lowlevel jet provided dynamic conditions for the occurrence of the squall.
A squall happened on 23 July 2004 in North China is analyzed on the basis of conventional meteorological observation data, as well as cloud, automatic weather station and Doppler radar data. It is found that the squall took place in the instability area near the northwest of the subtropical high, and was caused by a mesoscale convective system (MCS). A surface cold front, the southward moving of the subtropical high, and the upperlevel forward trough made the MCS move southeastward and enforced into a squall. The low and middlelevel moisture flux convergence in North China provided plenty of water vapor for the occurrence of strong convection. The lowlevel jet at 850 hPa and 700 hPa brought warm and moist southwest air to North China and intensified the unstable stratification. The strong wind shear near the lowlevel jet provided dynamic conditions for the occurrence of the squall.
2007, 35(2):222-226.
Abstract:
In August 27-28, 2004, a local rainstorm occurred in Dalian, along with strong wind, caused severe damages. The chara cteristics and forming causes of this rainstorm is studied through the analysis of daily observation data and detecting data from satellites, radars and automatic stations. It is found that this rainstorm was induced directly by three mesoscale and smallscale systems under the condition of steady largescale circulation. The basic causes of this rainstorm were the steady western Pacific subtropical hight and the stable and strengthening high pressure ridge in the east; meanwhile, caused by highlevel front positive vorticity advection, the pressure of the middle and lower troposphere dropped resulted in drastic climbingup of the air current. The riseing of the warm and humid current in the lower atmosphare contributed to the bursting of convective unsteady energy, and caused the local strong convection and the rainstorm.
In August 27-28, 2004, a local rainstorm occurred in Dalian, along with strong wind, caused severe damages. The chara cteristics and forming causes of this rainstorm is studied through the analysis of daily observation data and detecting data from satellites, radars and automatic stations. It is found that this rainstorm was induced directly by three mesoscale and smallscale systems under the condition of steady largescale circulation. The basic causes of this rainstorm were the steady western Pacific subtropical hight and the stable and strengthening high pressure ridge in the east; meanwhile, caused by highlevel front positive vorticity advection, the pressure of the middle and lower troposphere dropped resulted in drastic climbingup of the air current. The riseing of the warm and humid current in the lower atmosphare contributed to the bursting of convective unsteady energy, and caused the local strong convection and the rainstorm.
2007, 35(2):227-231.
Abstract:
Ecoenvironment assessment is one of focal topics in the ecological field presently. It includes two parts: ecoenvironment quality assessment and ecoenvironment service function assessment. The major research progresses in both fields in China in recent years are reviewed, and the future research directions are discussed. It is pointed out that there should be a further perfected index s ystem for ecoenvironment quality assessment and dynamic models of quantitative ecoenvironment quality assessment, as well as enhanced ecoenvironment assessment measures and ecoenvironment service assessment methods.
Ecoenvironment assessment is one of focal topics in the ecological field presently. It includes two parts: ecoenvironment quality assessment and ecoenvironment service function assessment. The major research progresses in both fields in China in recent years are reviewed, and the future research directions are discussed. It is pointed out that there should be a further perfected index s ystem for ecoenvironment quality assessment and dynamic models of quantitative ecoenvironment quality assessment, as well as enhanced ecoenvironment assessment measures and ecoenvironment service assessment methods.
2007, 35(2):232-235.
Abstract:
The analysis of the statistical data of grain production and disaster area from 1985 to 2004 in Fujian Province indicates that the disaster area in Fujian Province is inversely correlated with grain yields; the severity and impact of meteorological disasters on grain yields increase year by year. The sensitivity of grain yields to meteorological disasters is studied with the ratio of the grain yield variation rate after eliminating the plating area variation to the variation rate of the disaster area. The resulting sensitivity explains well the fact that disasters increase, but grain yields increase also from the 1980s to the 1990s; and that grain yields decrease obviously, but disasters increase slightly in the early 21 century.
The analysis of the statistical data of grain production and disaster area from 1985 to 2004 in Fujian Province indicates that the disaster area in Fujian Province is inversely correlated with grain yields; the severity and impact of meteorological disasters on grain yields increase year by year. The sensitivity of grain yields to meteorological disasters is studied with the ratio of the grain yield variation rate after eliminating the plating area variation to the variation rate of the disaster area. The resulting sensitivity explains well the fact that disasters increase, but grain yields increase also from the 1980s to the 1990s; and that grain yields decrease obviously, but disasters increase slightly in the early 21 century.
2007, 35(2):236-239.
Abstract:
The analyses are made of the characteristics of climate change and its effect on planting in the last 45 years in Zhang Jiakou by means of the data of precipitation, temperature, sunshine, frostfree period, etc., from 14 weather stations from 1960 to 2004, as well as the data on the planting area, grain yields, vegetables, economic crops, total agriculture production and agrometeorologi cal disasters. The conclusion shows that temperature increased obviously by 0.4 ℃ every 10 years; the number of frostfree days increased by 6.2 days every 10 years; precipitation reduced fluctuantly; sunshine duration assumed a reducing trend after the 1990s. Along with the climate warming and precipitation decreasing, the planting area and food yields reduced, and drought disasters became more serious; but the planting area and yields of such economic crops as vegetable and fruit increased, so the economy is benefited.
The analyses are made of the characteristics of climate change and its effect on planting in the last 45 years in Zhang Jiakou by means of the data of precipitation, temperature, sunshine, frostfree period, etc., from 14 weather stations from 1960 to 2004, as well as the data on the planting area, grain yields, vegetables, economic crops, total agriculture production and agrometeorologi cal disasters. The conclusion shows that temperature increased obviously by 0.4 ℃ every 10 years; the number of frostfree days increased by 6.2 days every 10 years; precipitation reduced fluctuantly; sunshine duration assumed a reducing trend after the 1990s. Along with the climate warming and precipitation decreasing, the planting area and food yields reduced, and drought disasters became more serious; but the planting area and yields of such economic crops as vegetable and fruit increased, so the economy is benefited.
2007, 35(2):240-244.
Abstract:
The characteristics of winter weather condition in 2005 and its effect on the growth of winter wheat after winter are analyzed on the basis of the winter average air temperature and precipitation data of 2005 (December 2004 to February 2005) from 11 counties of Jining, through systemic analysis of the various growth phases of winter wheat. In the entire winter, air temperature was higher at first and became lower in the midand latewinter. The negative accumulated temperature was higher than normal, resulting in the freezing injury of wheat stem and consequently the increasing of seedling height, the decreasing of greenery area, and the increasing of stalk net weight and kilograin weight, so the average wheat yields in Jining were reduced. The relevant countermeasures and suggestions are proposed aiming at the main causes of wheat freezing damage.
The characteristics of winter weather condition in 2005 and its effect on the growth of winter wheat after winter are analyzed on the basis of the winter average air temperature and precipitation data of 2005 (December 2004 to February 2005) from 11 counties of Jining, through systemic analysis of the various growth phases of winter wheat. In the entire winter, air temperature was higher at first and became lower in the midand latewinter. The negative accumulated temperature was higher than normal, resulting in the freezing injury of wheat stem and consequently the increasing of seedling height, the decreasing of greenery area, and the increasing of stalk net weight and kilograin weight, so the average wheat yields in Jining were reduced. The relevant countermeasures and suggestions are proposed aiming at the main causes of wheat freezing damage.
2007, 35(2):245-248.
Abstract:
Climate warming is a serious environmental problem faced by human being. It affects the living condition and the sustainable development of the society, and has caused worldwide attention. Through collecting and analyzing the latest scientific results across the world, the impact of climate warming on nonpathogenic diseases is studied. The results indicate that climate warming help patho genic diseases spread, make some new virus activated, increase malaria and other diseases of the like, and enhance the harmfulness of SARS and birds flu. Some countermeasures are put forward according to China’s actual situation.
Climate warming is a serious environmental problem faced by human being. It affects the living condition and the sustainable development of the society, and has caused worldwide attention. Through collecting and analyzing the latest scientific results across the world, the impact of climate warming on nonpathogenic diseases is studied. The results indicate that climate warming help patho genic diseases spread, make some new virus activated, increase malaria and other diseases of the like, and enhance the harmfulness of SARS and birds flu. Some countermeasures are put forward according to China’s actual situation.
2007, 35(2):249-251.
Abstract:
The natural phenophases of plants and animals are changing because of the global warming. In order to reflect accurately the ecological environment change by the phenological observation records so to provide reliable basic data for scientific research in climate, agricultural and animal husbandry, an analysis is made of all kinds of fault circumstances frequently occurred in the observation records by using the phenological observation records of woody plants, herb, animal and meteorological and hydrological phenomena of Qinghai Province from 1994 to 2003. The reasons for fault records are discussed and the solutions for decreasing and clearing off the fault records in natural phenological observation records are proposed, aiming to improve the accuracy of phenological observation records.
The natural phenophases of plants and animals are changing because of the global warming. In order to reflect accurately the ecological environment change by the phenological observation records so to provide reliable basic data for scientific research in climate, agricultural and animal husbandry, an analysis is made of all kinds of fault circumstances frequently occurred in the observation records by using the phenological observation records of woody plants, herb, animal and meteorological and hydrological phenomena of Qinghai Province from 1994 to 2003. The reasons for fault records are discussed and the solutions for decreasing and clearing off the fault records in natural phenological observation records are proposed, aiming to improve the accuracy of phenological observation records.
2007, 35(2):252-257.
Abstract:
The Knowledge Discovery in Database (KDD) technology is used to analyze and investigate the relationship between precipitation and the damageinducing meteorological geologic disasters in Yunnan Province. The findings conclude that most meteorological geologic disasters are induced by strong precipitation; there mainly are three types of relationship: induced by heavy rainfall, induced by multiday moderatetoheavy rainfall, and induced by consecutive rainfall. The quantitative relationship provides the evidence not only for the meteorological surveillance and forecast of meteorological geologic disasters, but also for the prediction model development in the Yunnan Province.
The Knowledge Discovery in Database (KDD) technology is used to analyze and investigate the relationship between precipitation and the damageinducing meteorological geologic disasters in Yunnan Province. The findings conclude that most meteorological geologic disasters are induced by strong precipitation; there mainly are three types of relationship: induced by heavy rainfall, induced by multiday moderatetoheavy rainfall, and induced by consecutive rainfall. The quantitative relationship provides the evidence not only for the meteorological surveillance and forecast of meteorological geologic disasters, but also for the prediction model development in the Yunnan Province.
2007, 35(2):258-263.
Abstract:
The radar echo features of three types of hail clouds and the hailcloud identification methods by radar echoes (such as echo type, echo parameters and synthesis indexes) are described on the basis of the outcomes and experiences accumulated from the 40year hail suppression operation in Liaoning Province. Combining with the numerical results of a hailcloud model, some experiences of seeding in hailgenerating areas (liquidwater accumulating zones, supercell storms and multiplecell storms) in hail suppression operations are summed up. The results are useful to hail suppression operation.
The radar echo features of three types of hail clouds and the hailcloud identification methods by radar echoes (such as echo type, echo parameters and synthesis indexes) are described on the basis of the outcomes and experiences accumulated from the 40year hail suppression operation in Liaoning Province. Combining with the numerical results of a hailcloud model, some experiences of seeding in hailgenerating areas (liquidwater accumulating zones, supercell storms and multiplecell storms) in hail suppression operations are summed up. The results are useful to hail suppression operation.
2007, 35(2):264-268.
Abstract:
It is necessary to estimate accurately the influencing weather systems at the beginning of operation and develop conceptive synoptic models for precipitation enhancement operation in Liaoning Province in order to make artificial precipitation operation more effective. Four types of synoptic models (westerly trough, northeast cold cyclone, shear linear, and subtropical high) are establish ed, based on the analysis of the characteristics of atmospheric circulation affecting precipitation over Liaoning Province and the survey of the upperlevel and ground weather charts of the Eurasian region from 1983 to 1992. The precautionary areas for the next 12 to 24 hours and the optimized seeding areas can be given for precipitation enhancement in Liaoning Province.
It is necessary to estimate accurately the influencing weather systems at the beginning of operation and develop conceptive synoptic models for precipitation enhancement operation in Liaoning Province in order to make artificial precipitation operation more effective. Four types of synoptic models (westerly trough, northeast cold cyclone, shear linear, and subtropical high) are establish ed, based on the analysis of the characteristics of atmospheric circulation affecting precipitation over Liaoning Province and the survey of the upperlevel and ground weather charts of the Eurasian region from 1983 to 1992. The precautionary areas for the next 12 to 24 hours and the optimized seeding areas can be given for precipitation enhancement in Liaoning Province.
2007, 35(2):269-273.
Abstract:
A statistical analysis of 38 rain enhancement cases in Dalian of Liaoning Province is made based on the basic data and products of Doppler radar echo in last two years. The variation characteristics of primary echo parameters are summarized. It is shown that some radar echo parameters varied regularly with time. The radar echo intensity and VIL (Vertical Integrated Liquid water) after seeding became greater, and the maximum values appeared in 20 to 30 minutes after seeding. The evolutionary characteristics of cloudtop heights were different: the heights of stratuscumulus mixing clouds increased，while the heights of stratiform clouds decreased at first and then increased. The results provide useful reference for the seeding effectiveness analysis with Doppler data and the scientific selection of seeding opportunity aiming at largerange and stable precipitation processes, as well as the sufficiency exploitation of air cloudwater resource.
A statistical analysis of 38 rain enhancement cases in Dalian of Liaoning Province is made based on the basic data and products of Doppler radar echo in last two years. The variation characteristics of primary echo parameters are summarized. It is shown that some radar echo parameters varied regularly with time. The radar echo intensity and VIL (Vertical Integrated Liquid water) after seeding became greater, and the maximum values appeared in 20 to 30 minutes after seeding. The evolutionary characteristics of cloudtop heights were different: the heights of stratuscumulus mixing clouds increased，while the heights of stratiform clouds decreased at first and then increased. The results provide useful reference for the seeding effectiveness analysis with Doppler data and the scientific selection of seeding opportunity aiming at largerange and stable precipitation processes, as well as the sufficiency exploitation of air cloudwater resource.
24 Risk Evaluation of Precipitation Enhancement in Flooding Season over Reservoir Area in Qinhuangdao
2007, 35(2):274-277.
Abstract:
The risk evaluation of precipitation enhancement in flooding season over the reservoir area in Qinhuangdao is conducted by using the method for computing the increased precipitation developed by the Weather Modification Office of Hebei Province, based on the precipitation data of the area around two big reservoirs of Qinhuangdao, in case of the largest rainfall in history over the Yanghe and Taolinkou drainage areas resulted from precipitation enhancement operation. The result shows that precipitation enhancement operation will not cause danger to reservoirs. According to the analysis of climate change, the precipitation enhancement aiming to increase the water capacity of reservoirs in flooding season is an effective approach.
The risk evaluation of precipitation enhancement in flooding season over the reservoir area in Qinhuangdao is conducted by using the method for computing the increased precipitation developed by the Weather Modification Office of Hebei Province, based on the precipitation data of the area around two big reservoirs of Qinhuangdao, in case of the largest rainfall in history over the Yanghe and Taolinkou drainage areas resulted from precipitation enhancement operation. The result shows that precipitation enhancement operation will not cause danger to reservoirs. According to the analysis of climate change, the precipitation enhancement aiming to increase the water capacity of reservoirs in flooding season is an effective approach.
2007, 35(2):278-281.
Abstract:
An artillery precipitation enhancement operation of hail clouds at the Wuqing district in Tianjin on 2 August 2000 is analyzed in detail by use of WSR-81S Radar data at Tianjin and the corresponding surface precipitation data. The surface rain observation data after the operation shows that there is a large precipitation center in the upstream of the operating site, which means that the operation changed the original distribution of natural precipitation, increased the rainfall in parts of the area. Analysis of the WSR81S radar data shows that during the repeated operations, the radar echo intensity, altitude, and speed decreased; the operation was directed at the movement of the hail clouds，resulting in more precipitation in the upstream area, so the over 45 dBz echo zone remained there.
An artillery precipitation enhancement operation of hail clouds at the Wuqing district in Tianjin on 2 August 2000 is analyzed in detail by use of WSR-81S Radar data at Tianjin and the corresponding surface precipitation data. The surface rain observation data after the operation shows that there is a large precipitation center in the upstream of the operating site, which means that the operation changed the original distribution of natural precipitation, increased the rainfall in parts of the area. Analysis of the WSR81S radar data shows that during the repeated operations, the radar echo intensity, altitude, and speed decreased; the operation was directed at the movement of the hail clouds，resulting in more precipitation in the upstream area, so the over 45 dBz echo zone remained there.
2007, 35(2):282-285.
Abstract:
By means of NOAA satellite data from 1998 to 2004, NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) over the northern Shaanxi Province is calculated. The results indicate that the increase of NDVI is between 50% to 200% with the maximum at Wuqi County. The analysis of rainfall data of the northern Yanan and Yulin from 1998 to 2004 indicates that the NDVI increase mainly attributes to the countermeasure of “converting farmland to forest” , but not to precipitation change. The correlative analysis of time series and the comparative analysis of typical years are made of the precipitation measurements at the Wuqi meteorological station and the runoff data from the Wiqi hydrological station from 1980 to 2004. The results indicate that the vegetation cover variation had impact on the annual runoff, which decreased by half, being of positive significance to water and soil conservation.
By means of NOAA satellite data from 1998 to 2004, NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) over the northern Shaanxi Province is calculated. The results indicate that the increase of NDVI is between 50% to 200% with the maximum at Wuqi County. The analysis of rainfall data of the northern Yanan and Yulin from 1998 to 2004 indicates that the NDVI increase mainly attributes to the countermeasure of “converting farmland to forest” , but not to precipitation change. The correlative analysis of time series and the comparative analysis of typical years are made of the precipitation measurements at the Wuqi meteorological station and the runoff data from the Wiqi hydrological station from 1980 to 2004. The results indicate that the vegetation cover variation had impact on the annual runoff, which decreased by half, being of positive significance to water and soil conservation.
2007, 35(2):286-288.
Abstract:
The rainfall estimate is conducted for the southwestern Guizhou Province (eight counties and one city) by means of the Doppler radar data (volume scan) and automatic weather station data in 2004, considering the geographical and climatic features and the distance away from the radar. The least square method is used to determine the relationship between radar echo intensity and precipitation. The statistical test is carried out by the data from January to July 2005 and the analysis of the errors is made from several aspects. The results are satisfactory and provide useful references for rainfall estimate.
The rainfall estimate is conducted for the southwestern Guizhou Province (eight counties and one city) by means of the Doppler radar data (volume scan) and automatic weather station data in 2004, considering the geographical and climatic features and the distance away from the radar. The least square method is used to determine the relationship between radar echo intensity and precipitation. The statistical test is carried out by the data from January to July 2005 and the analysis of the errors is made from several aspects. The results are satisfactory and provide useful references for rainfall estimate.
2007, 35(2):289-291.
Abstract:
The intensive automatic meteorological station monitoring system is introduced in the aspects of networking pattern, transmission mode of data, information flow and its operating situation, etc. The components and principles of the automatic meteorological station monitoring system are described. The system can observe intensively meteorological factors (so far, temperature and precipitation only), which can make up the scarcity of monitoring stations in Hebei Province and improve the forecast accuracy of the mesoscale models. The realtime collecting of observation data will greatly contribute to the capability of monitoring, forecasting and decision making concerning weather.
The intensive automatic meteorological station monitoring system is introduced in the aspects of networking pattern, transmission mode of data, information flow and its operating situation, etc. The components and principles of the automatic meteorological station monitoring system are described. The system can observe intensively meteorological factors (so far, temperature and precipitation only), which can make up the scarcity of monitoring stations in Hebei Province and improve the forecast accuracy of the mesoscale models. The realtime collecting of observation data will greatly contribute to the capability of monitoring, forecasting and decision making concerning weather.
2007, 35(2):292-294.
Abstract:
Creating the realistical sky scene has very important application value in simulation environment and weather phenomenon. It is also a difficult task within computer visualization study. An algorithm that can generate colorful and realistic sky scenes is described. The algorithm includes the following procedures: to create the basic cloud picture by determining the color hierarchy mode and improving the midpointed position shifting method; to conduct cloud picture mapping based on images; to create the sky scene in combination with meteorological elements through optical superposition, background synthesis, and color modification, etc. It can play an important role in various kinds of meteorological phenomenon simulation and the development of weather information visual system.
Creating the realistical sky scene has very important application value in simulation environment and weather phenomenon. It is also a difficult task within computer visualization study. An algorithm that can generate colorful and realistic sky scenes is described. The algorithm includes the following procedures: to create the basic cloud picture by determining the color hierarchy mode and improving the midpointed position shifting method; to conduct cloud picture mapping based on images; to create the sky scene in combination with meteorological elements through optical superposition, background synthesis, and color modification, etc. It can play an important role in various kinds of meteorological phenomenon simulation and the development of weather information visual system.
2007, 35(2):295-298.
Abstract:
An internetbased system of disaster weather warning and meteorological information distributing is introduced in detail. It is free software, has the functions of linking internet users to obtain automatically importance disaster weather warning messages and other conventional weather forecast information and receiving satellite cloud pictures and radar data at any time and any place. A ccordingly, the coverage of the system is greatly enlarged, and at present, the number of users has grown to nearly 100 thousands, even including villages and towns, schools, corporations and communities. It has great potential in application.
An internetbased system of disaster weather warning and meteorological information distributing is introduced in detail. It is free software, has the functions of linking internet users to obtain automatically importance disaster weather warning messages and other conventional weather forecast information and receiving satellite cloud pictures and radar data at any time and any place. A ccordingly, the coverage of the system is greatly enlarged, and at present, the number of users has grown to nearly 100 thousands, even including villages and towns, schools, corporations and communities. It has great potential in application.
2007, 35(2):299-302.
Abstract:
A detailed introduction to the requirements of a display and analysis system of rain gauge data is made. Based on the objective analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of the existing widely used methods, a software system applying the ISAPI (Internet Service Application Programming Interface) technology is devised, which consists of data query, vector graph drawing, objective inter pretation, contour drawing, etc., schemes within the framework of server/browser. The key techniques, such as vector graph drawing and rainfall map drawing for a river basin, are also discussed. Being independent of other software, it is easy to upgrade and extend.
A detailed introduction to the requirements of a display and analysis system of rain gauge data is made. Based on the objective analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of the existing widely used methods, a software system applying the ISAPI (Internet Service Application Programming Interface) technology is devised, which consists of data query, vector graph drawing, objective inter pretation, contour drawing, etc., schemes within the framework of server/browser. The key techniques, such as vector graph drawing and rainfall map drawing for a river basin, are also discussed. Being independent of other software, it is easy to upgrade and extend.
2007, 35(2):303-306.
Abstract:
The design of wireless LED (LightEmittingDiode) broadcast system for weather information based on GSM (Global System for Mobile) is presented. Using the integrated design with the industry standard GSM communication module, LED and MCU (Micro Controller Unit) to receive, handle and control information, taking full advantage of the GSM network of China Mobile and China Unicom because of the characteristics of the wide overlaying, high stability and dependability and low expenses, a new information generation and release platform on LED is devised with integration of intellective receiving and displaying of information and remote monitoring. A universal information releasing and monitoring system based on “SMS on Meteorological Information Service” is developed, and the authorized clients can achieve the remote release of various meteorological information services on the wireless LED in virtue of the system or their personal cellular phone terminals.
The design of wireless LED (LightEmittingDiode) broadcast system for weather information based on GSM (Global System for Mobile) is presented. Using the integrated design with the industry standard GSM communication module, LED and MCU (Micro Controller Unit) to receive, handle and control information, taking full advantage of the GSM network of China Mobile and China Unicom because of the characteristics of the wide overlaying, high stability and dependability and low expenses, a new information generation and release platform on LED is devised with integration of intellective receiving and displaying of information and remote monitoring. A universal information releasing and monitoring system based on “SMS on Meteorological Information Service” is developed, and the authorized clients can achieve the remote release of various meteorological information services on the wireless LED in virtue of the system or their personal cellular phone terminals.
2007, 35(2):307-308.
Abstract:
It briefly introduces the application of the automatic observation system software for surface weather observation stations in the preliminary examination of meteorological monthly reports from automatic weather stations (AWS). It describes in detail the general operating procedures in record examination and the problems encountered in practice, so to assure the quality of AWS meteorological records and help data reviewers avoid various errors.
It briefly introduces the application of the automatic observation system software for surface weather observation stations in the preliminary examination of meteorological monthly reports from automatic weather stations (AWS). It describes in detail the general operating procedures in record examination and the problems encountered in practice, so to assure the quality of AWS meteorological records and help data reviewers avoid various errors.
External LinksChina Meteorological AdministrationCMA Meteorological Observation CentreChinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing Meteorological ServiceNational Satellite Meteorological Center
You are thevisitors
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.