Volume 48,Issue 6,2020 Table of Contents
2020, 48(6):779-787.
Abstract:
The main goal of the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) international forecasting research project is to improve S2S forecast skill, and especially the 0-60 day predictability skills. The China Meteorological Data Service Center takes part into the construction of the S2S multimodel database, has collected the S2S data of 11 original centers in the project. This article introduces the list of S2S model data, parameters, and file naming rules, discusses the data read algorithm, data analysis algorithm, and data visualization algorithm, evaluates the correctness, completeness and timeliness of the data, calculates the historical average of the data up to 20 years of reforecasts, calculates the anomaly and forecast values of the 5day, 7day and 10day scales, and then introduces the S2S visualization product applications. Based on the analysis of the ECMWF anomaly graphic products in the same period, the S2S data products are promoted in the shortterm climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration.
The main goal of the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) international forecasting research project is to improve S2S forecast skill, and especially the 0-60 day predictability skills. The China Meteorological Data Service Center takes part into the construction of the S2S multimodel database, has collected the S2S data of 11 original centers in the project. This article introduces the list of S2S model data, parameters, and file naming rules, discusses the data read algorithm, data analysis algorithm, and data visualization algorithm, evaluates the correctness, completeness and timeliness of the data, calculates the historical average of the data up to 20 years of reforecasts, calculates the anomaly and forecast values of the 5day, 7day and 10day scales, and then introduces the S2S visualization product applications. Based on the analysis of the ECMWF anomaly graphic products in the same period, the S2S data products are promoted in the shortterm climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration.
2020, 48(6):788-794.
Abstract:
The Beijing Huayun Oriental Detection Technology Co., Ltd. established the DDW1 Lightning Location System in Guangdong Province from 2016 to 2018. The observation of a thunderstorm process by the DDW1 Lightning Location System shows that the spatial distribution of DDW1 location data is in good agreement with the strong echo areas of radar echoes. In this paper, the performance of the DDW1 lightning location system is analyzed by means of the data from the lightningtriggering experiment and the fullflash location data obtained by the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences in Conghua of Guangzhou in 2018, and the detection efficiency and location accuracy of full flashes are verified. The results show that the detection efficiency of the DDW1 lightning location system is 100% for all the six triggered lightning events, and 17 times for the 27 triggered lightning events; the detection efficiency of the DDW1 lightning location system is about 63%. The average positioning error of these return stroke processes is about 464 m; the current inversion error is 11.49%; and the total flash detection efficiency is 50% compared with the highprecision fullflash detection network LFEDA.
The Beijing Huayun Oriental Detection Technology Co., Ltd. established the DDW1 Lightning Location System in Guangdong Province from 2016 to 2018. The observation of a thunderstorm process by the DDW1 Lightning Location System shows that the spatial distribution of DDW1 location data is in good agreement with the strong echo areas of radar echoes. In this paper, the performance of the DDW1 lightning location system is analyzed by means of the data from the lightningtriggering experiment and the fullflash location data obtained by the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences in Conghua of Guangzhou in 2018, and the detection efficiency and location accuracy of full flashes are verified. The results show that the detection efficiency of the DDW1 lightning location system is 100% for all the six triggered lightning events, and 17 times for the 27 triggered lightning events; the detection efficiency of the DDW1 lightning location system is about 63%. The average positioning error of these return stroke processes is about 464 m; the current inversion error is 11.49%; and the total flash detection efficiency is 50% compared with the highprecision fullflash detection network LFEDA.
2020, 48(6):795-800.
Abstract:
In order to effectively evaluate the measurement errors of air negative ions, this paper analyzes the measurement errors caused by the ion collector, microcurrent measurement and air flow according to the measurement method of air negative ions. In the case that the ion collector is determined, the microcurrent measurement and air flow are the main factors that cause measurement errors. The centralized comparison of instruments and field inspections show that the measurement results of different types of instruments can basically reflect the change trend of negative ion concentration, but the measured values of negative ion concentration are quite different; some instruments exceed 200%. Laboratory simulation tests show that the influence of air humidity on the instrument measurement is small, and the environmental wind speed has a large impact on the instrument measurement.
In order to effectively evaluate the measurement errors of air negative ions, this paper analyzes the measurement errors caused by the ion collector, microcurrent measurement and air flow according to the measurement method of air negative ions. In the case that the ion collector is determined, the microcurrent measurement and air flow are the main factors that cause measurement errors. The centralized comparison of instruments and field inspections show that the measurement results of different types of instruments can basically reflect the change trend of negative ion concentration, but the measured values of negative ion concentration are quite different; some instruments exceed 200%. Laboratory simulation tests show that the influence of air humidity on the instrument measurement is small, and the environmental wind speed has a large impact on the instrument measurement.
2020, 48(6):801-807.
Abstract:
Based on the real time horizontal wind data of the wind profiler radar in Jiulong Station, a horizontal wind data quality control method is developed. The method acquires the following: the median horizontal wind field, the difference sequence between observed wind field and median horizontal wind field, the mean square deviation of the difference sequence, the quality control discriminant by the mean square deviation of the difference sequence, and the threshold in quality control discriminant through experiment. According to the quality control results of the wind profiler radar horizontal wind data over Jiulong Station in 2017, a total of 2044185 wind direction data have been observed, and 25721 wind direction data do not pass the quality control, with the proportion of wind direction data without passing the quality control being 1.258%. The wind direction data passed the quality control mostly in the surface layer, and the data passing the quality control decrease with height. A total of 2044185 wind speed data have been observed, 18296 do not pass the quality control, with the proportion of wind direction data without passing the quality control being 0.895%. The wind speed data passing the quality control are found mostly in 2000 to 4000 m, then in the surface layer, and the least in 4500 to 7000 m. The root mean square error decreases after quality control, and the correlation coefficient increases after quality control. Wind direction data quality is improved significantly from 500 to 7000 m, and wind speed data quality is improved significantly form 1500 to 8000 m.
Based on the real time horizontal wind data of the wind profiler radar in Jiulong Station, a horizontal wind data quality control method is developed. The method acquires the following: the median horizontal wind field, the difference sequence between observed wind field and median horizontal wind field, the mean square deviation of the difference sequence, the quality control discriminant by the mean square deviation of the difference sequence, and the threshold in quality control discriminant through experiment. According to the quality control results of the wind profiler radar horizontal wind data over Jiulong Station in 2017, a total of 2044185 wind direction data have been observed, and 25721 wind direction data do not pass the quality control, with the proportion of wind direction data without passing the quality control being 1.258%. The wind direction data passed the quality control mostly in the surface layer, and the data passing the quality control decrease with height. A total of 2044185 wind speed data have been observed, 18296 do not pass the quality control, with the proportion of wind direction data without passing the quality control being 0.895%. The wind speed data passing the quality control are found mostly in 2000 to 4000 m, then in the surface layer, and the least in 4500 to 7000 m. The root mean square error decreases after quality control, and the correlation coefficient increases after quality control. Wind direction data quality is improved significantly from 500 to 7000 m, and wind speed data quality is improved significantly form 1500 to 8000 m.
2020, 48(6):808-815.
Abstract:
According to the internal structure, working principles and maintenance requirements of the frontstage component of the Sband newgeneration weather radar high frequency amplification chain and important functional modules such as solidstate amplifier and RF pulse former, a set of diagnosis system which can support the test and maintenance of the solidstate amplifier and RF pulse former is designed. The design flow of the system is described in detail, mainly including the design of hardware, power, circuit interface, control logic and display circuit. It can provide a variety of voltage, control signal, timing logic signal for testing and maintenance of the solidstate amplifier and RF pulse former, thus meeting the circuit signal testing requirements of solidstate amplifier and RF pulse former faults, and judging fault points and components. The directoutput fault indication allows to conduct tests and fault location quickly, thus to ensure the safety of the maintenance personnel and to protect the radar equipment from secondary damages and assuring the timeliness of radar fault maintenance.
According to the internal structure, working principles and maintenance requirements of the frontstage component of the Sband newgeneration weather radar high frequency amplification chain and important functional modules such as solidstate amplifier and RF pulse former, a set of diagnosis system which can support the test and maintenance of the solidstate amplifier and RF pulse former is designed. The design flow of the system is described in detail, mainly including the design of hardware, power, circuit interface, control logic and display circuit. It can provide a variety of voltage, control signal, timing logic signal for testing and maintenance of the solidstate amplifier and RF pulse former, thus meeting the circuit signal testing requirements of solidstate amplifier and RF pulse former faults, and judging fault points and components. The directoutput fault indication allows to conduct tests and fault location quickly, thus to ensure the safety of the maintenance personnel and to protect the radar equipment from secondary damages and assuring the timeliness of radar fault maintenance.
2020, 48(6):816-822.
Abstract:
Aiming at the shortcomings of traditional meteorological stations, such as the high complexity of communication technology, high cost of construction, poor timeliness and high power consumption, a small automatic weather station monitoring system based on NBIoT technology is designed. The system is mainly composed of the meteorological sensing equipment, single station controller and IoT (Internet of Things) cloud platform. This system uses the lowpower CorterM3 core STM32L152 microcontrol chip as the hardware core, relying on the meteorological sensor equipment to realize the collection and processing of meteorological element data; using NBIoT technology to realize the data transmission between the weather station and the cloud server; utilizing RESTful API and MySQL technology to implement user interaction, remote terminal control and data storage, display, analysis, query and other functions. The test results show that the system has simple construction, low power consumption and stable data transmission. It can realize the remote realtime monitoring of meteorological elements.
Aiming at the shortcomings of traditional meteorological stations, such as the high complexity of communication technology, high cost of construction, poor timeliness and high power consumption, a small automatic weather station monitoring system based on NBIoT technology is designed. The system is mainly composed of the meteorological sensing equipment, single station controller and IoT (Internet of Things) cloud platform. This system uses the lowpower CorterM3 core STM32L152 microcontrol chip as the hardware core, relying on the meteorological sensor equipment to realize the collection and processing of meteorological element data; using NBIoT technology to realize the data transmission between the weather station and the cloud server; utilizing RESTful API and MySQL technology to implement user interaction, remote terminal control and data storage, display, analysis, query and other functions. The test results show that the system has simple construction, low power consumption and stable data transmission. It can realize the remote realtime monitoring of meteorological elements.
7 Research and Implementation of Provincial Meteorological Big Data Service Platform Based on Extranet
2020, 48(6):823-828.
Abstract:
With the development of the social economy, meteorological big data are an important part of national big data basic strategic resources. However, the existing provincial and municipal intensive meteorological big data environment is built in the meteorological business intranet, while the societyoriented meteorological data service has some problems, such as the low degree of intensification, poor timeliness, less data, and high security risks. Therefore, the establishment of a unified, efficient and safe meteorological big data center for the external network environment is an urgent demand for the development of meteorological service socialization. The meteorological big data service platform adopts GoldenGate and sersync + rsync technology to realize the realtime and stable triggering secondlevel data synchronization between intranet and DMZ area. The unified access interface design of cross platform, multilanguage development, and standardized call allows to achieve the high concurrency and stable data response requests, and timesharing classification of user data access control allows to achieve the security control of data permissions. The platform provides efficient, safe and authoritative meteorological big data services to Internet users through the dual network control of firewall.
With the development of the social economy, meteorological big data are an important part of national big data basic strategic resources. However, the existing provincial and municipal intensive meteorological big data environment is built in the meteorological business intranet, while the societyoriented meteorological data service has some problems, such as the low degree of intensification, poor timeliness, less data, and high security risks. Therefore, the establishment of a unified, efficient and safe meteorological big data center for the external network environment is an urgent demand for the development of meteorological service socialization. The meteorological big data service platform adopts GoldenGate and sersync + rsync technology to realize the realtime and stable triggering secondlevel data synchronization between intranet and DMZ area. The unified access interface design of cross platform, multilanguage development, and standardized call allows to achieve the high concurrency and stable data response requests, and timesharing classification of user data access control allows to achieve the security control of data permissions. The platform provides efficient, safe and authoritative meteorological big data services to Internet users through the dual network control of firewall.
2020, 48(6):829-835.
Abstract:
The meteorological information decision support system plays an important role in the process of meteorological disaster prevention and reduction, but the monolithic architecture of a meteorological information decision support system is difficult to meet the needs of scientific decisionmaking and intelligent disaster reduction, and there are deficiencies in scalability and reusability. The microservice architecture based on Spring Cloud has the characteristics of low coupling and easy expansion, and has been widely used in large and mediumsized enterprises. In this paper, through the research on the key technologies of microservice architecture, three reconstruction strategies of meteorological information decision support system architecture are proposed. In view of the limitations of meteorological information decision support systems, combined with the characteristics of microservice architecture, the framework of meteorological information decision support systems based on microservice is designed, which is divided into the core layer, business logic layer and presentation layer. The business logic layer is mainly reconstructed and realized, and the reconstructed business functions are applied to the meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation monitoring management platform, which improves the scalability and reusability.
The meteorological information decision support system plays an important role in the process of meteorological disaster prevention and reduction, but the monolithic architecture of a meteorological information decision support system is difficult to meet the needs of scientific decisionmaking and intelligent disaster reduction, and there are deficiencies in scalability and reusability. The microservice architecture based on Spring Cloud has the characteristics of low coupling and easy expansion, and has been widely used in large and mediumsized enterprises. In this paper, through the research on the key technologies of microservice architecture, three reconstruction strategies of meteorological information decision support system architecture are proposed. In view of the limitations of meteorological information decision support systems, combined with the characteristics of microservice architecture, the framework of meteorological information decision support systems based on microservice is designed, which is divided into the core layer, business logic layer and presentation layer. The business logic layer is mainly reconstructed and realized, and the reconstructed business functions are applied to the meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation monitoring management platform, which improves the scalability and reusability.
2020, 48(6):836-845.
Abstract:
By using the conventional meteorological data, infrared cloud images of th FY4A satellite and doppler meteorological radar data, this paper analyzes a severe convective weather case occurred on 17 May 2019 in the central BeijingTianjinHebei region, accompanied by a strong hail, shortterm heavy precipitation and shortterm strong winds. To further reveal the environmental conditions of the convective storm formation and the mechanism of backward propagation, the Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS) and meteorological data of a national automatic weather station are used. The results show that under the largescale background field being favorable for the occurrence and development of strong convection, the convection system around the central BeijingTianjinHebei region developed rapidly. The convection system was triggered by a southward moving ground convergence line at the BeijingLangfang border, which was the confluent area between the southeast air flow from the Bohai Bay and the strong northeast cold air flow generated by the cold pool formed by the strong convection weather in the BeijingTianjin region earlier. It is shown as a backwardpropagating multicell storm. The main reasons for the backwardpropagation are the strong wind shear in lower atmosphere (0 to 3 km) and the positive feedback effect between new and old storm cells.
By using the conventional meteorological data, infrared cloud images of th FY4A satellite and doppler meteorological radar data, this paper analyzes a severe convective weather case occurred on 17 May 2019 in the central BeijingTianjinHebei region, accompanied by a strong hail, shortterm heavy precipitation and shortterm strong winds. To further reveal the environmental conditions of the convective storm formation and the mechanism of backward propagation, the Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS) and meteorological data of a national automatic weather station are used. The results show that under the largescale background field being favorable for the occurrence and development of strong convection, the convection system around the central BeijingTianjinHebei region developed rapidly. The convection system was triggered by a southward moving ground convergence line at the BeijingLangfang border, which was the confluent area between the southeast air flow from the Bohai Bay and the strong northeast cold air flow generated by the cold pool formed by the strong convection weather in the BeijingTianjin region earlier. It is shown as a backwardpropagating multicell storm. The main reasons for the backwardpropagation are the strong wind shear in lower atmosphere (0 to 3 km) and the positive feedback effect between new and old storm cells.
2020, 48(6):846-854.
Abstract:
With the typhoon cyclone data, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) index data from 1949 to 2018, the characteristics of the Violent Typhoon Event Seriously Affecting Hainan Island (VTESAH) are analyzed. Based on this, the impact of PDO on VTESAH is analyzed. The results show that the frequency of VTESAH has obvious interannual variation characteristics, with continuity and clustering. During 1960-1990, the frequency of VTESAH had a significant 8to10 year cycle, of which the 8year cycle was the most significant. There is a good correspondence between VTESAHs and cold phases of PDO, and VTESAHs are more likely to occur in cold phase years. When the PDO phase is cold (warm), there is a significant negative (positive) correlation between the frequency of VTESAHs and the sea surface temperature in the western Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines at low latitudes. When the subtropical high is weaker (stronger) and its position is farther eastward (westward) and northward (southward), the lower convergence zone shows a northwestsoutheast trend (eastwest beltshaped), and the convergence area is wider and larger (narrower and longer), it is good for the occurrence of VTESAHs in the cold (warm) phase years of PDO. The generation and development of VTESAHs can be influenced by PDO through the modulation of climate factors such as subtropical high and lowlevel circulation.
With the typhoon cyclone data, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) index data from 1949 to 2018, the characteristics of the Violent Typhoon Event Seriously Affecting Hainan Island (VTESAH) are analyzed. Based on this, the impact of PDO on VTESAH is analyzed. The results show that the frequency of VTESAH has obvious interannual variation characteristics, with continuity and clustering. During 1960-1990, the frequency of VTESAH had a significant 8to10 year cycle, of which the 8year cycle was the most significant. There is a good correspondence between VTESAHs and cold phases of PDO, and VTESAHs are more likely to occur in cold phase years. When the PDO phase is cold (warm), there is a significant negative (positive) correlation between the frequency of VTESAHs and the sea surface temperature in the western Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines at low latitudes. When the subtropical high is weaker (stronger) and its position is farther eastward (westward) and northward (southward), the lower convergence zone shows a northwestsoutheast trend (eastwest beltshaped), and the convergence area is wider and larger (narrower and longer), it is good for the occurrence of VTESAHs in the cold (warm) phase years of PDO. The generation and development of VTESAHs can be influenced by PDO through the modulation of climate factors such as subtropical high and lowlevel circulation.
11 Establishment and Test of Huaxi Autumn Rain Forecasting Model Based on Interannual Increment Method
2020, 48(6):855-861.
Abstract:
Based on the autumn precipitation data of 301 meteorological stations in West China from 1962 to 2018 and 130 climatic system indices compiled by the National Climate Center, the autumn rainfall prediction model in West China is established by using the interannual incremental method. Four influencing factors closely related to the first three main modes of the annual increment of Huaxi autumn rainfall are selected through correlation analysis. The multivariate linear regression method is used to establish the model, and the fitting and the hindcast periods are selected as 1962-1991 and 1992-2018, respectively. The mainmode prediction model of interannual increment of Huaxi autumn rainfall has passed the significance test of 〖WTBX〗α〖WTBZ〗=0.01, which shows that the model has a high capability of fitting and forecasting. The interannual incremental forecasting models of Huaxi autumn rainfall for 301 meteorological stations are established with the same forecasting factors, and most of the models have passed the significance test. The results are checked by two indicators: symbol consistency rate and PS score. The results show that the average annual PS score is 74.5 in the hindcast test period. In terms of spatial distribution, the PS scores of all stations in the hindcast test period exceeds 60, and more than 80 points are scored in the southern of Sichuan Basin, Eastern Guizhou and Western Hunan. Compared with the PS scores of autumn precipitation forecast published by the western provinces and the National Climate Center in recent 6 years, it is found that the results of the model have significant advantages. Generally, the Huaxi autumn rain prediction model based on the interannual increment method has high prediction skills and practical application value.
Based on the autumn precipitation data of 301 meteorological stations in West China from 1962 to 2018 and 130 climatic system indices compiled by the National Climate Center, the autumn rainfall prediction model in West China is established by using the interannual incremental method. Four influencing factors closely related to the first three main modes of the annual increment of Huaxi autumn rainfall are selected through correlation analysis. The multivariate linear regression method is used to establish the model, and the fitting and the hindcast periods are selected as 1962-1991 and 1992-2018, respectively. The mainmode prediction model of interannual increment of Huaxi autumn rainfall has passed the significance test of 〖WTBX〗α〖WTBZ〗=0.01, which shows that the model has a high capability of fitting and forecasting. The interannual incremental forecasting models of Huaxi autumn rainfall for 301 meteorological stations are established with the same forecasting factors, and most of the models have passed the significance test. The results are checked by two indicators: symbol consistency rate and PS score. The results show that the average annual PS score is 74.5 in the hindcast test period. In terms of spatial distribution, the PS scores of all stations in the hindcast test period exceeds 60, and more than 80 points are scored in the southern of Sichuan Basin, Eastern Guizhou and Western Hunan. Compared with the PS scores of autumn precipitation forecast published by the western provinces and the National Climate Center in recent 6 years, it is found that the results of the model have significant advantages. Generally, the Huaxi autumn rain prediction model based on the interannual increment method has high prediction skills and practical application value.
2020, 48(6):862-870.
Abstract:
Based on EC (0.25°×0.25°) model forecast data and ADTD lightning location system, combined with the formation conditions of the three elements of a thunderstorm, the forecast factors are selected from the aspects of water vapor, unstable energy, thermodynamics and dynamics, and the weight coefficient is determined by the principal component analysis. Sichuan Province is divided into three regions (the Sichuan basin, Panxi area and Western Sichuan Plateau) according to the altitudes and the forecast model is established, respectively. The lightning grid probability prediction products are developed. The forecast test shows that the Sichuan basin has better forecast effect when the probability is 70%, and the TS scores are 0.294. The forecast effects in the Panxi area and the Western Sichuan Plateau are better when the probability is 60% and their TS scores are 0.302 and 0.299, respectively.
Based on EC (0.25°×0.25°) model forecast data and ADTD lightning location system, combined with the formation conditions of the three elements of a thunderstorm, the forecast factors are selected from the aspects of water vapor, unstable energy, thermodynamics and dynamics, and the weight coefficient is determined by the principal component analysis. Sichuan Province is divided into three regions (the Sichuan basin, Panxi area and Western Sichuan Plateau) according to the altitudes and the forecast model is established, respectively. The lightning grid probability prediction products are developed. The forecast test shows that the Sichuan basin has better forecast effect when the probability is 70%, and the TS scores are 0.294. The forecast effects in the Panxi area and the Western Sichuan Plateau are better when the probability is 60% and their TS scores are 0.302 and 0.299, respectively.
2020, 48(6):871-876.
Abstract:
Based on the meteorological elements and environmental air quality monitoring data observed synchronously in the main urban area of Chongqing from 2014 to 2018, the correlation analysis between different atmospheric pollutants and various meteorological factors is carried out, and the meteorological factors affecting the common characteristics of the forecast model are eliminated to identify the meteorological factors significantly affecting air quality. Then combined with the pollutant discharge atmospheric diffusion process and wet sedimentation mechanism, the air quality prediction equation using the mixed mode of power and linear superposition is constructed. The results show that the constructed nonlinear regression equation can accurately reflect the interaction between major atmospheric pollutants and meteorological elements, and the accuracy of the regression model prediction test is satisfactory with a prediction score of 87.6.
Based on the meteorological elements and environmental air quality monitoring data observed synchronously in the main urban area of Chongqing from 2014 to 2018, the correlation analysis between different atmospheric pollutants and various meteorological factors is carried out, and the meteorological factors affecting the common characteristics of the forecast model are eliminated to identify the meteorological factors significantly affecting air quality. Then combined with the pollutant discharge atmospheric diffusion process and wet sedimentation mechanism, the air quality prediction equation using the mixed mode of power and linear superposition is constructed. The results show that the constructed nonlinear regression equation can accurately reflect the interaction between major atmospheric pollutants and meteorological elements, and the accuracy of the regression model prediction test is satisfactory with a prediction score of 87.6.
2020, 48(6):877-886.
Abstract:
In order to evaluate the performance of reanalysis surface temperature over Jiangxi Province, the gridded temperature data of the JRA55, ERAInterim, ERA5 and MERRA2 reanalysis models during 1980-2017 is topographically modified and interpolated to the station level by the bilinear interpolation method, to examine the applicability over observed temperature in terms of meanstate deviations (bias, root mean square error and correlation analysis), annual trend and extreme temperature events (the number of high/low temperature days). The results show that the lapse rate of air temperature calculated in the study has a reasonable range and seasonal cycle, and is suitable for the topographical correction for hourly data interpolation. Based on the topographically modified results, JRA55 has the lowest bias and root mean square error, followed by MERRA2, ERAInterim and ERA5. As for the tendency, JRA55, ERAInterim and ERA5 are consistent with observation in magnitude, while JRA55 has better capacity in capturing the spatial distribution of the warming. In the perspective of extreme temperature events, the four set of reanalysis data can reproduce the annual fluctuations, but only JRA55 shows closest magnitude to the observation. As a conclusion, the applicability is: JRA55>ERAInterim>ERA5>MERRA2.
In order to evaluate the performance of reanalysis surface temperature over Jiangxi Province, the gridded temperature data of the JRA55, ERAInterim, ERA5 and MERRA2 reanalysis models during 1980-2017 is topographically modified and interpolated to the station level by the bilinear interpolation method, to examine the applicability over observed temperature in terms of meanstate deviations (bias, root mean square error and correlation analysis), annual trend and extreme temperature events (the number of high/low temperature days). The results show that the lapse rate of air temperature calculated in the study has a reasonable range and seasonal cycle, and is suitable for the topographical correction for hourly data interpolation. Based on the topographically modified results, JRA55 has the lowest bias and root mean square error, followed by MERRA2, ERAInterim and ERA5. As for the tendency, JRA55, ERAInterim and ERA5 are consistent with observation in magnitude, while JRA55 has better capacity in capturing the spatial distribution of the warming. In the perspective of extreme temperature events, the four set of reanalysis data can reproduce the annual fluctuations, but only JRA55 shows closest magnitude to the observation. As a conclusion, the applicability is: JRA55>ERAInterim>ERA5>MERRA2.
2020, 48(6):887-897.
Abstract:
Based on the daily 2m maximum and minimum temperature forecast data of SCMOC, SNWFD and SPCO models in 2016-2018 and actual temperature data of stations, this paper analyzes and discusses the forecast performance of refined and revised products in Sichuan. The results show that: (1) Among the three models, the prediction capabilities of SPCO and SNWFD for the max/min temperatures are comparable, and both are higher than SCMOC. (2) The forecasting effect in the eastern part of Sichuan is better than that in the western region, and the forecast error is the greatest in the western Sichuan Plateau and Liangshan Prefecture. (3) For the seasons, the forecasting effect is better in summer and autumn than that in the spring and winter. (4) The forecast error increases with the increase of the forecasting time. (5) The forecast of the minimum temperature in Sichuan is better than that of the maximum temperature.
Based on the daily 2m maximum and minimum temperature forecast data of SCMOC, SNWFD and SPCO models in 2016-2018 and actual temperature data of stations, this paper analyzes and discusses the forecast performance of refined and revised products in Sichuan. The results show that: (1) Among the three models, the prediction capabilities of SPCO and SNWFD for the max/min temperatures are comparable, and both are higher than SCMOC. (2) The forecasting effect in the eastern part of Sichuan is better than that in the western region, and the forecast error is the greatest in the western Sichuan Plateau and Liangshan Prefecture. (3) For the seasons, the forecasting effect is better in summer and autumn than that in the spring and winter. (4) The forecast error increases with the increase of the forecasting time. (5) The forecast of the minimum temperature in Sichuan is better than that of the maximum temperature.
2020, 48(6):898-902.
Abstract:
In order to reveal the effects of topography and land use types on extreme lightning activities in Jiangxi Province, in this paper, the maximum lightning density and maximum lightning intensity are selected as the two main parameters to reflect extreme lightning activity. Based on the monitoring data of lightning and the remote sensing data of surface vegetation and topographic elevation image, the main parameters of different land use, slope and aspect are extracted. The distribution of extreme lightning activity and its correlation to land use and topography are analyzed. The results show that the extreme lightning activities mainly occurred in urban and rural construction lands, and the second is arable lands. The activities of lightning with the maximum intensity occurred in hills and mountains in Ganzhou and Jiujiang, in which the land use type is forestland mainly, and the next is arable land. The topographic factors that affect the distribution of extreme lightning activity mainly include slope, aspect and elevation.
In order to reveal the effects of topography and land use types on extreme lightning activities in Jiangxi Province, in this paper, the maximum lightning density and maximum lightning intensity are selected as the two main parameters to reflect extreme lightning activity. Based on the monitoring data of lightning and the remote sensing data of surface vegetation and topographic elevation image, the main parameters of different land use, slope and aspect are extracted. The distribution of extreme lightning activity and its correlation to land use and topography are analyzed. The results show that the extreme lightning activities mainly occurred in urban and rural construction lands, and the second is arable lands. The activities of lightning with the maximum intensity occurred in hills and mountains in Ganzhou and Jiujiang, in which the land use type is forestland mainly, and the next is arable land. The topographic factors that affect the distribution of extreme lightning activity mainly include slope, aspect and elevation.
2020, 48(6):903-910.
Abstract:
Based on the data of phenological stages of dormant, flowering and fruiting of yellow peach and the contemporaneous meteorological elements in Fengxian from 2009 to 2018, the daily averaged relative humidity and minimum daily relative humidity during the flowering and fruiting periods of yellow peach from 1980 to 2018, the main meteorological disaster factors affecting the flowering and fruiting of yellow peach in 2016 and the characteristics and influence of relative humidity during flowering and fruiting periods in 39 years are analyzed by contrast and mathematical statistic methods. The results show that in 2016, from the beginning of flowering to the flowering period of yellow peach, fine weather lasted for 6 days, and the minimum daily relative humidity was less than 30%, and the average relative humidity from 09:00 to 20:00 every day was less than 50%. As a result, a large decrease was induced in fruit setting that year. The average relative humidity and the average minimum relative humidity in the flowering period of yellow peach showed a downward trend since the 1980s, and both mutation years are in 2000. The probability of lowhumidity weather in late March and early April was high so that low wet weather increased the risk of extreme lowhumidity disaster in the flowering period of yellow peach. The beginning of flowering period was significantly positively correlated with the first day of 5d sliding average temperature being greater than 10 ℃ from 2009 to 2018， based on which the partial least squares regression equation is established and verified. It is concluded that the model performs well in dealing with lowhumidity weather.
Based on the data of phenological stages of dormant, flowering and fruiting of yellow peach and the contemporaneous meteorological elements in Fengxian from 2009 to 2018, the daily averaged relative humidity and minimum daily relative humidity during the flowering and fruiting periods of yellow peach from 1980 to 2018, the main meteorological disaster factors affecting the flowering and fruiting of yellow peach in 2016 and the characteristics and influence of relative humidity during flowering and fruiting periods in 39 years are analyzed by contrast and mathematical statistic methods. The results show that in 2016, from the beginning of flowering to the flowering period of yellow peach, fine weather lasted for 6 days, and the minimum daily relative humidity was less than 30%, and the average relative humidity from 09:00 to 20:00 every day was less than 50%. As a result, a large decrease was induced in fruit setting that year. The average relative humidity and the average minimum relative humidity in the flowering period of yellow peach showed a downward trend since the 1980s, and both mutation years are in 2000. The probability of lowhumidity weather in late March and early April was high so that low wet weather increased the risk of extreme lowhumidity disaster in the flowering period of yellow peach. The beginning of flowering period was significantly positively correlated with the first day of 5d sliding average temperature being greater than 10 ℃ from 2009 to 2018， based on which the partial least squares regression equation is established and verified. It is concluded that the model performs well in dealing with lowhumidity weather.
2020, 48(6):911-916.
Abstract:
In order to make full use of the ecological environment characteristics, improve the yields and quality of Momordica grosvenori and promote the stable and efficient production, it is essential to scientifically formulate the plan of Momordica grosvenori production in Guilin. Based on the data of 14 meteorological stations in Guilin from 1981 to 2017 with combining with the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data and using the method of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), the climatic suitability index of Momordica grosvenori in Guilin is constructed by two factors of climate and terrain. The climatic suitability index is classified into suitable, subsuitable and unsuitable areas by using the method of Natural Breaks. The results show that the central, southwest and northeast parts of Guilin are more suitable for planting grosvenori with a good hydrothermal condition, suitable temperature and sunlight and moderate altitude. Besides, the Maoer Mountain, Yuecheng Mountain, Haiyang Mountain and Dupang Mountain in Guilin belong to unsuitable areas, for having higher altitude and worse climate condition and not meeting the needs of the growth and development of Momordica grosvenori.
In order to make full use of the ecological environment characteristics, improve the yields and quality of Momordica grosvenori and promote the stable and efficient production, it is essential to scientifically formulate the plan of Momordica grosvenori production in Guilin. Based on the data of 14 meteorological stations in Guilin from 1981 to 2017 with combining with the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data and using the method of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), the climatic suitability index of Momordica grosvenori in Guilin is constructed by two factors of climate and terrain. The climatic suitability index is classified into suitable, subsuitable and unsuitable areas by using the method of Natural Breaks. The results show that the central, southwest and northeast parts of Guilin are more suitable for planting grosvenori with a good hydrothermal condition, suitable temperature and sunlight and moderate altitude. Besides, the Maoer Mountain, Yuecheng Mountain, Haiyang Mountain and Dupang Mountain in Guilin belong to unsuitable areas, for having higher altitude and worse climate condition and not meeting the needs of the growth and development of Momordica grosvenori.
Kerimu ABASI
,
Nu’erpatiman MAIMAITIREYIMU
,
MENG Fanxue
,
Patiman ABUDUAINI
,
XIE ye
,
Kanjiguli WUSHOU’ER
2020, 48(6):917-922.
Abstract:
Using the meteorological observation data of Yuepuhu in Xinjiang from 1981 to 2019, combined with the growth and development of Flos Lonicerae, the relationship between the climatic conditions and the growth of Flos Lonicerae in Yuepuhu are analyzed. According to the ecological characteristics of Flos Lonicerae, the meteorological conditions of Flos Lonicerae cultivation in Yuepuhu are systematically analyzed, and the results show that the average temperature of each phenological stage of Flos Lonicerae in Yuepuhu show an obvious increasing trend; the number of sunshine hours has an obvious increasing trend; and the water source is sufficient. These are conducive to the normal growth and development of Flos Lonicerae. As the temperature rises and the number of sunshine hours increases, the planting time has been advanced from the previous midMarch to early March; the planting area has expanded year by year, from tens of hectares in 2016 to 345 hm2 in 2019; and the planting mode has been adjusted from the plain cropping to intercropping method. In the interplanting mode, the varieties are unified with Beihua No.1. The number of consecutive high temperature days of ≥38 ℃ during the growth and development of Flos Lonicerae, especially in ≥40 ℃ high temperature weather, the shortterm heavy precipitation weather, windy and sandy weather and other meteorological conditions have certain influence on the quality and yield of Flos Lonicerae. Exploration of the favorable climatic conditions for the development of the Flos Lonicerae planting industry in Yuepuhu provides a scientific basis for the construction of the Yuepuhu Flos Lonicerae industrial base, as well as the meteorological guarantee for the increase of income of flower farmers.
Using the meteorological observation data of Yuepuhu in Xinjiang from 1981 to 2019, combined with the growth and development of Flos Lonicerae, the relationship between the climatic conditions and the growth of Flos Lonicerae in Yuepuhu are analyzed. According to the ecological characteristics of Flos Lonicerae, the meteorological conditions of Flos Lonicerae cultivation in Yuepuhu are systematically analyzed, and the results show that the average temperature of each phenological stage of Flos Lonicerae in Yuepuhu show an obvious increasing trend; the number of sunshine hours has an obvious increasing trend; and the water source is sufficient. These are conducive to the normal growth and development of Flos Lonicerae. As the temperature rises and the number of sunshine hours increases, the planting time has been advanced from the previous midMarch to early March; the planting area has expanded year by year, from tens of hectares in 2016 to 345 hm2 in 2019; and the planting mode has been adjusted from the plain cropping to intercropping method. In the interplanting mode, the varieties are unified with Beihua No.1. The number of consecutive high temperature days of ≥38 ℃ during the growth and development of Flos Lonicerae, especially in ≥40 ℃ high temperature weather, the shortterm heavy precipitation weather, windy and sandy weather and other meteorological conditions have certain influence on the quality and yield of Flos Lonicerae. Exploration of the favorable climatic conditions for the development of the Flos Lonicerae planting industry in Yuepuhu provides a scientific basis for the construction of the Yuepuhu Flos Lonicerae industrial base, as well as the meteorological guarantee for the increase of income of flower farmers.
External LinksChina Meteorological AdministrationCMA Meteorological Observation CentreChinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing Meteorological ServiceNational Satellite Meteorological Center
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.